President Donald Trump’s controversial approach towards Greenland has sparked a broader discussion about the nature of international alliances, values, and Western credibility. This development serves as a cautionary tale for Australia, which may need to reassess its strategic reliance on the ANZUS treaty and consider enhancing its strategic autonomy.
Six months ago, I spent a week in Greenland, where the sentiment among Greenlanders was clear: they opposed becoming part of the United States. Despite their hopes that American leadership would abandon its ambitions, uncertainty still looms. While the immediate crisis has subsided, the underlying issues surrounding American ambitions and leadership remain.
Implications for Australia
Greenland is geographically distant from Australia, and its strategic significance may seem minimal. However, the implications of American coercion extend far beyond Greenland. If the United States continues to pressure Greenlanders, Danes, and NATO allies, Australia will face a critical decision. The stance Australia takes could reflect its values and principles on the global stage.
President Trump’s recent assurance that the use of force is off the table does little to alleviate concerns about his approach. The underlying issues include a perceived derision towards allies and alliances, which can have far-reaching consequences.
Global Repercussions
- The threat of a coercive takeover of Greenland could embolden Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s capacity to negotiate an end to its conflict with Russia could be further weakened.
- NATO’s eastern flank may become more vulnerable to Russian aggression.
- Western arguments against China’s intentions towards Taiwan could lose credibility.
- If NATO, a cornerstone of the global alliance system, is weakened, confidence in the entire system could erode.
- Western soft power, already diminished, could suffer further setbacks, benefiting China and Russia.
Australia’s Strategic Outlook
Trump’s behavior towards Greenland and allies suggests that Australia should reconsider the weight of the American alliance in its external outlook. Since 1945, Australia’s foreign policy has been built on three main pillars: the American alliance, regional engagement, and participation in international institutions addressing global issues.
While the significance of these pillars has varied over time, the American alliance has often dominated, limiting Australia’s capacity for strategic autonomy. Alliances typically depend on mutual interests, trust, and shared values. However, Trump’s actions have undermined these foundations, leaving many allies economically strained and questioning their security.
The Need for Strategic Autonomy
Australia and the United States share mutual security interests, particularly in managing China’s regional ambitions. However, Trump’s unpredictability and the growing gap in values necessitate a re-evaluation of Australia’s reliance on the alliance.
This is not an argument for weakening or abandoning the alliance. In time, Trump will leave office, and elements of Trumpism may diminish. An American presence in the region remains in Australia’s interest, but the country must move beyond the sanctification of the alliance and embrace greater strategic autonomy.
“We must lose our fear of abandonment and weigh the advantages of ANZUS more critically. Like Trump, we should adopt a more transactional approach, becoming more self-reliant while still benefiting from the alliance.”
Exploring New Avenues
One way to address these issues is to commission a new white paper on external policy, incorporating input from all relevant agencies. This paper should focus on self-reliance, Australia’s regional role, and the potential contributions of middle powers to the international system.
Crucially, the paper should examine the place and weight of the alliance in Australia’s external outlook. This is not unprecedented; Australia conducted an ANZUS review in 1983 under different circumstances. The time has come to revisit and adapt to the current geopolitical landscape.
As Australia navigates these complex dynamics, it must balance its longstanding alliances with a pragmatic approach to emerging global challenges, ensuring its national interests are safeguarded in an ever-evolving world.
