On the 25th anniversary of the Sydney Olympics, Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport, the gateway that welcomed athletes and fans from around the world in 2000, has unveiled its ambitious plan to dominate the air travel market. Announced on Monday, the airport’s 2045 master plan aims to increase annual passenger numbers to 72 million, up from the current 41 million, marking its most significant expansion since the Olympic Games.
The announcement comes as Kingsford Smith prepares to face competition from the new government-owned Western Sydney Airport, set to open in late 2026. This new contender aims to handle 82 million passengers annually by 2063. However, concerns about Western Sydney’s viability, particularly regarding transport links, have already surfaced. The question remains: how will Kingsford Smith’s plans impact the new rival airport?
The Expansion Plans
Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport’s draft 2045 master plan, currently open for public feedback until December, outlines a vision to accommodate 36.4 million international passengers and 36.2 million domestic and regional passengers by 2045. Freight capacity is projected to more than double, reaching 1.4 million tonnes annually.
The plan focuses on integrating the two domestic terminals, T2 and T3, and adding up to 12 international gates to create a unified precinct for regional, domestic, and international services. Additionally, two more gates will be added to the T1 international terminal.
Meanwhile, Western Sydney Airport’s 2045 master plan, pending government approval, outlines a strategy to reach 10 million passengers by 2033 and 19.3 million by 2045. Freight volumes are expected to rise to approximately 547,000 tonnes annually by 2045, with long-term forecasts predicting 1.8 million tonnes annually. The new airport will operate domestic and international services from a single terminal and one runway until at least the 2050s.
Winners in the Airspace Battle
According to Nader Naderpajouh, head of the School of Project Management at the University of Sydney, competition between the airports is beneficial for both travelers and airlines. “Now we have an airport that is pushing the other airport to also improve and expand,” he remarked.
Sydney Airport’s passenger numbers are expected to increase by 75% by 2045, with flight numbers rising by 34%. Transport expert Mathew Hounsell from the University of Technology Sydney explains that these targets will be achieved by increasing passenger density and load, which may result in more competitive fares, albeit with less legroom.
Flight path changes will see Sydney Airport’s north-south runway shift slightly west, impacting suburbs like Dulwich Hill and Ashfield, while offering some noise relief to areas closer to the CBD.
Hounsell notes that Western Sydney Airport’s curfew-free operations could capture the market for low-cost carriers and international freight, but its distance from the CBD limits its impact on lucrative routes to Brisbane, Canberra, and Melbourne.
Challenges and Concerns
Despite the ambitious plans, Western Sydney Airport faces significant challenges. Hounsell suggests that Sydney Airport’s expansion could “kneecap” its new competitor. While Sydney Airport declined to comment on the potential impact, Western Sydney Airport maintains that its position as Sydney’s only 24-hour international gateway positions it well to attract new operators.
Currently, only four airlines—Qantas, Jetstar, Singapore Airlines, and Air New Zealand—have committed to using the new airport. Hounsell advises caution regarding the ambitious 80 million passenger target.
Naderpajouh points out that neither airport’s plan adequately considers the impact of the climate crisis on travel demand. Hounsell adds that rising house and energy prices, along with stagnant wages, could also affect passenger numbers. He notes that the high targets suggest a lack of consideration for climate change within the industry.
Sydney Airport aims to achieve net-zero emissions in its operations by 2030, while Western Sydney Airport incorporates sustainable materials and infrastructure for future technologies.
Looking Ahead
As Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport pushes forward with its expansion, the timing and impact on the fledgling Western Sydney Airport remain under scrutiny. Naderpajouh reflects on historical projects, noting that there is “never a right time for a project,” citing the Sydney Opera House as an example of a project that, despite initial challenges, became a national success.
The rivalry between Sydney’s airports will likely drive improvements and innovations, ultimately benefiting travelers and the aviation industry. However, the success of these ambitious plans will depend on addressing environmental concerns, economic factors, and the evolving needs of passengers in the decades to come.
