Higher than normal influenza cases in Hunter New England and across New South Wales have prompted health officials to issue a holiday warning, urging residents to be cautious about spreading the disease. This comes as more than 630 lab-confirmed cases of influenza were recorded in the region over the past three months, significantly higher than the same period last year.
Professor Nathan Bartlett, a virologist at the Hunter Medical Research Institute and the University of Newcastle, highlighted the unusual spike in flu cases, attributing it to a mutant version of the H3N2 strain known as “subclade K”. He noted that this variant is “a bit less susceptible to our immunity”, leading to increased transmission.
Understanding the Flu Surge
The K variant, first detected in Australia in August, has become a leading cause of respiratory-related deaths in the country, according to the Doherty Institute. It has since spread to more than 30 countries worldwide. The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP) reported that flu cases have continued to climb during the summer months, with flu-related deaths surpassing those associated with COVID-19 in recent months.
In 2025 alone, at least 491,000 influenza cases have been documented, marking a 34.5% increase from 2024, which was already an all-time high. Hunter New England has recorded over 13,000 cases this year, the second-highest number on record.
Health Experts Weigh In
RACGP president Michael Wright emphasized the importance of taking precautions during the holiday season. “Gathering to celebrate Christmas, the new year, sports, and other activities can play a part in increasing case numbers,” he said. Dr. Wright also noted the potential impact on mental health during the holidays, stressing that no one should have to spend this time alone.
However, he warned that the flu and other respiratory infections “can be deadly or put a loved one in hospital”. He suggested alternative ways for those unwell or isolating to participate in celebrations, such as joining by video or phone call. “The best way to reduce the risk of a severe infection is to get a flu vaccination,” Dr. Wright advised.
Vaccine Efficacy and Public Health Measures
Professor Patrick Reading from the Doherty Institute pointed out a gap between the circulating strain and the current flu vaccine’s target, underscoring the importance of population immunity. “It highlights how important population immunity is to control these infectious diseases. Naturally acquired infections also generate immunity,” he explained.
In the absence of widespread immunity, populations become more susceptible, leading to more cases and deaths. This situation has prompted health authorities to emphasize the need for vaccinations and other preventive measures to curb the spread of the virus.
Looking Ahead
As the holiday season approaches, health officials continue to monitor the situation closely, urging the public to remain vigilant. The surge in flu cases serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing challenges posed by infectious diseases and the critical role of public health measures in protecting communities.
Residents are encouraged to stay informed about flu developments and adhere to health guidelines to ensure a safe and healthy holiday season.
