The Solomon Islands is considering a move that could reshape the upcoming Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) by potentially excluding major global players like China and the United States. This decision comes amidst mounting pressure over Taiwan’s participation in the key regional meeting scheduled for September in Honiara.
Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele faces increasing scrutiny regarding whether to permit Taiwan’s representatives to attend the PIF leaders meeting. Historically, Taiwan has participated as a “development partner,” leveraging the opportunity to engage with its few remaining Pacific allies. However, Beijing’s diplomatic efforts to isolate Taiwan have intensified, urging the Solomon Islands to break with tradition and exclude Taiwan entirely.
Background and Diplomatic Tensions
Last year’s PIF meeting in Tonga saw China react strongly when Pacific leaders upheld Taiwan’s status as a participant. Earlier this year, tensions rose further when the Solomon Islands denied visas to Taiwanese officials. The current proposal by Mr. Manele suggests deferring the annual dialogue with PIF partners until a comprehensive review of regional diplomatic structure is completed. This move would not only impact China and Taiwan but also exclude other nations from Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
According to an Australian government source, the proposal is seen as a strategic maneuver to address the “Taiwan problem” in a way that might appease both Beijing and Taiwan’s allies. The Pacific Islands Forum, a significant annual event, faces potential upheaval as it navigates these geopolitical challenges.
Reactions and Implications
Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr has already expressed concerns, warning that excluding Taiwan could lead to a repeat of the “PIF split” that previously disrupted the forum. Meanwhile, Tuvalu’s Climate Change Minister Maina Talia emphasized the rights of Pacific nations recognizing Taiwan to engage with their key partner at the meeting.
Anna Powles, a scholar from Massey University, noted that the proposed compromise might de-escalate the situation but also highlighted how geopolitics have influenced the Forum Leaders Meeting. She pointed out that without Beijing’s pressure, the Solomon Islands might have adhered to the 1992 Honiara Communique, which supports Taiwan’s participation.
“If Beijing was not placing pressure on Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Manele would presumably be able to uphold the 1992 Honiara Communique,” Dr. Powles stated.
Potential Outcomes and Future Considerations
The Solomon Islands’ proposal, yet to be finalized and endorsed by the PIF Secretariat, might be the only viable solution if the country remains firm on excluding Taiwan. Analysts warn that such a decision could cause divisions within the forum. However, there is a precedent: Fiji similarly excluded dialogue partners in 2022 to focus on resolving internal rifts.
Dr. Powles suggested that while limiting the meeting to PIF members might reduce distractions, it could also leave forum partners dissatisfied. She proposed that major PIF partners might participate virtually, as demonstrated by then-US Vice President Kamala Harris in 2022.
Both Australia and New Zealand have urged the Solomon Islands to include Taiwan in the September gathering, yet neither has publicly criticized Honiara’s stance. A spokesperson for Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade emphasized the importance of international engagement at the forum to amplify the Pacific’s voice globally.
“We understand arrangements for the Forum Leaders Meeting in Honiara in September are currently being finalized by the Solomon Islands government with the Pacific Islands Forum secretariat,” the spokesperson stated.
Geopolitical Dynamics and Regional Sovereignty
Since switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019, the Solomon Islands has strengthened ties with Beijing. Prime Minister Manele, along with his predecessor Manasseh Sogavare, has been a vocal supporter of China’s One China policy. However, domestic criticism has emerged, with MP Peter Kenilorea Jr accusing the government of compromising national sovereignty.
As the PIF prepares to deliberate on Fiji’s “Ocean of Peace” framework, Dr. Powles suggested that it might be an opportune moment to establish a code of conduct to manage geopolitical tensions in the Pacific. She also noted that the Solomon Islands’ decision might merely postpone the issue until Palau, a Taiwan ally, hosts the meeting in 2026.
“It is clear forum leaders need to come up with a solution that respects the commitments the forum has made, respects the national interests of its members, and ensures the forum leaders’ meetings do not become a geopolitical circus,” Dr. Powles concluded.
The ABC has sought comments from both Mr. Manele’s office and the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat as the situation continues to develop.
