US Army General Ben Hodges, who commanded American forces in Europe until 2017, often recounts a story from a NATO exercise in Bulgaria. During this exercise, US paratroopers were tasked with capturing an airfield, only to face an unexpected bureaucratic hurdle: the Bulgarian Interior Ministry insisted each paratrooper show their passport upon landing. This anecdote highlights the bureaucratic challenges that NATO and the EU face, which could impede Western Europe’s ability to effectively counter Russian aggression beyond Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently expressed disdain for NATO and Western Europe, dismissing the notion that Russia seeks war. “Russia does not intend to fight Europe, but if Europe starts, we are ready right now,” he stated before meeting US negotiators in Moscow. Despite these talks, issues of territory and Ukrainian security remain unresolved barriers.
Meanwhile, Russia claims control over the strategic city of Pokrovsk, though the Institute for the Study of War has not confirmed a “complete Russian seizure.” A senior NATO official noted that over 95% of the city is under Russian control, underscoring the precarious position of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zolenskyy.
The World’s First Drone War
Recent assessments from the Institute for the Study of War and the Atlantic Council suggest that Ukraine’s early technological advantages, particularly in drone warfare, are waning. Initially, Ukraine’s innovative use of drones gave it an edge, but Russia has adapted, learning from early setbacks and expanding its domestic drone manufacturing.
The Atlantic Council highlighted Ukraine’s initial strategic focus on drones, supported by its vibrant tech sector. This sector enabled Ukraine to design and produce drones domestically, offsetting a lack of conventional weapons. However, as the war drags on, Russia’s methodical approach to drone production, aided by allies like China and Iran, has begun to erode Ukraine’s advantage.
“At the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s vibrant tech sector represented an important asset that the authorities in Kyiv were quick to mobilize,” noted the Atlantic Council.
Ukraine’s deputy minister of defense for digital transformation, Oksana Ferchuk, emphasized the rapid evolution of frontline technology, stating, “The technology on the frontline is changing every two to three weeks.”
Russia’s Reliance on Scale
While Ukraine’s flexibility in procurement has been impressive, Russia’s transformation from a traditional military approach to a more modern, drone-centric strategy is proving challenging. The Atlantic Council noted Russia’s focus on mass-producing a limited range of drone models for battlefield use and city bombardments, a strategy that has yielded results.
Kateryna Stepanenko, from the Institute for the Study of War, attributes Russian advances in Pokrovsk to “months of dedicated battlefield shaping” and significant manpower commitments. Despite these advances, the Atlantic Council warns that the drone war has not decisively shifted in Russia’s favor, highlighting a gap Ukraine must address urgently.
Critical Minerals: A Crucial Factor
As the conflict continues, Europe faces the challenge of supporting Ukraine while addressing its own military readiness. European arms manufacturers are ramping up production, but sourcing critical minerals remains a significant hurdle. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recently reported on the challenges posed by dependence on critical minerals, which could complicate European rearmament plans.
“European arms companies are investing in new production capacity to meet the rising demand,” SIPRI stated. “But sourcing materials could pose a growing challenge.”
Companies like Airbus and Safran, previously reliant on Russian titanium, are seeking new suppliers, while Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals further complicate supply chains. This issue underscores the complex interplay between military strategy, technological advancement, and resource availability in the ongoing conflict.
As winter approaches, the outcome of the war may hinge not only on military tactics but also on the availability of critical resources and the adaptability of both Ukrainian and Russian forces.
