New Delhi, India – Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit India on Thursday, marking his first trip to the country since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. This visit comes at a time when efforts by the United States to mediate peace in Ukraine have stalled, adding a layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.
Putin’s brief 30-hour visit coincides with a period of strained relations between Washington and New Delhi. The United States has imposed tariffs and threatened sanctions on India due to its historical ties with Russia and increased purchases of Russian crude oil during the Ukraine conflict. This situation has further complicated India’s longstanding balancing act between Russia and the West.
India’s Diplomatic Tightrope
Since gaining independence in 1947, India has maintained a policy of non-alignment, avoiding formal alliances with any superpower. During the Cold War, India leaned towards the Soviet Union, but in recent decades, it has strengthened strategic and military ties with the United States while maintaining its relationship with Russia.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has tested this delicate balance. Putin’s visit is expected to provide insights into how Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to navigate these competing relationships without compromising any of them.
Agenda for Putin’s Visit
Putin is scheduled to arrive on Thursday evening, where he will join Modi for a private dinner at the prime minister’s residence in New Delhi. The following day, he will visit Rashtrapati Bhavan for a guard of honor and meet with India’s ceremonial head of state, Droupadi Murmu. A visit to Raj Ghat, the memorial to Mahatma Gandhi, is also planned.
The highlight of the visit will be the annual India-Russia summit at Hyderabad House, followed by meetings with business leaders and a banquet hosted by President Murmu. According to the Kremlin, the visit is of “great importance,” allowing for a comprehensive discussion on the extensive agenda of Russian-Indian relations.
Significance of the Timing
Putin’s visit marks 25 years of strategic partnership between India and Russia, a relationship that has largely remained stable despite shifting geopolitical dynamics. The tradition of annual summits between the two nations was disrupted in 2022 due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Modi’s planned visit to Russia was postponed, and Putin skipped the G20 summit in New Delhi in 2023 due to an International Criminal Court warrant against him.
Now, with the annual summit resumed, Putin’s presence in New Delhi is significant, signaling a continuation of the long-standing partnership between the two countries.
Trade and Defense Discussions
Trade analysts and political experts anticipate that Putin will advocate for India to purchase more Russian missile systems and fighter jets, aiming to bolster defense ties and explore new trade opportunities in sectors like pharmaceuticals, machinery, and agriculture.
“The summit offers an opportunity for both sides to reaffirm their special relationship amidst intense pressure on India from [US] President [Donald] Trump with punitive tariffs,” said Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst for India at Crisis Group.
Putin is expected to leverage the summit to project Russia’s global standing, despite international pressure over the Ukraine conflict.
Impact of US Policies
The United States has been critical of India’s increased imports of Russian crude oil, with President Trump imposing tariffs on Indian goods as a penalty. Despite this, India has defended its “strategic autonomy” and continued importing Russian oil, which has helped stabilize global markets.
However, recent US sanctions on Russian oil firms and threats against companies trading with them have led to a decline in Indian imports of Russian crude. India is now increasing its gas imports from the US, signaling a shift in its energy strategy.
In the defense sector, the US has pressured India to reduce its reliance on Russian arms. Despite this, Russia remains India’s largest defense supplier, accounting for a significant portion of its arsenal.
“New Delhi is wary of upsetting Washington regarding its defense deals with Moscow, but that’s not going to deter it from making important deals,” noted Donthi.
Future Trade Prospects
India-Russia trade has surged since 2022, driven by India’s demand for discounted Russian crude. However, this trade is heavily skewed, with Indian exports to Russia remaining modest. The goal of reaching $100 billion in trade by 2030 appears challenging.
Both countries are now exploring labor migration as a means to strengthen economic ties. Russia faces a labor shortage, which Indian workers could help address, potentially enhancing bilateral relations.
As India negotiates trade deals with the US, the European Union, and the Eurasian Economic Union, it must carefully balance these relationships to avoid antagonizing any major partner.
“A peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could significantly ease tensions and open new avenues for cooperation,” analysts suggest.
Putin’s visit to India is a critical moment in the ongoing geopolitical chess game, with implications that could resonate far beyond the borders of the two nations involved.
