On election night in May, as Labor celebrated a decisive victory, another story was quietly unfolding that could have significant implications for Australia’s political landscape. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation achieved its strongest national performance in nearly three decades, doubling its Senate representation and increasing its vote share to 6.2 percent. For a party often dismissed as a relic of the past, this result was unexpected. For Hanson, it was a moment of validation.
The 71-year-old leader attributed the resurgence to the Coalition’s indecisiveness, a sentiment she has built her career on by asserting that mainstream parties cannot be trusted. Hanson’s success is not just a local phenomenon; it mirrors a global trend of rising right-wing populism. This wave has been gaining momentum across democratic nations, and Hanson, ever the opportunist, has skillfully ridden it back into relevance.
The Populist Wave and Its Impact
Whether Hanson can maintain her position atop this populist wave is a crucial question for Australian politics. Barnaby Joyce, a significant figure in conservative circles for the past two decades, seems to believe in One Nation’s potential. After resigning from the Nationals, Joyce remarked on the global shift in politics, citing figures like Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, and the “MAGA movement” as evidence of this change.
“The world is changing, and I think Australia is actually last to it. It’s just that with compulsory voting it’s a little more sticky here,” Joyce said. “And it’s changing because how people get their information is changing.”
In the months following the election, One Nation claims its membership has doubled nationwide, although specific numbers remain undisclosed. However, polling data supports their claim of growing influence. A recent poll by Redbridge and Accent Research for The Australian Financial Review showed One Nation at a record 18 percent. Newspoll and Essential poll results also indicate a significant rise in support.
Historical Context and Expert Opinions
Jim Reed, director of Resolve, notes that One Nation has eroded the Coalition’s base on the right, similar to how the Greens impacted Labor. Reed suggests Hanson has tapped into widespread dissatisfaction with major parties over issues like living costs and housing. “Immigration and emissions reduction are often blamed as root causes, so her stances on those points are quite appealing,” he explains.
Hanson’s political journey is marked by reinvention and resilience, characterized by dramatic comebacks, internal conflicts, and a loyal voter base. She first entered Canberra in 1996, a disruptive force that was both feared and dismissed. Over the years, Hanson has reshaped her party, surviving periods of political obscurity and personal challenges.
“Like any populist who styles themselves as an anti-politician politician – and you know, you can include [US President Donald] Trump in that – she specializes in talking the vernacular of her people,” says Anna Broinowski, a documentary filmmaker and academic.
Broinowski, who has documented Hanson’s political career, argues that Hanson’s grievances resonate with both the far-left and far-right, reflecting a broader discontent with neoliberal policies that have shaped the modern world.
Strategies and Future Prospects
Hanson’s return to the Senate after 18 years was a sign of the populist forces gaining traction in Australia. Her approach has evolved, using digital media to amplify her message. Her latest campaign strategies include animations mocking various political targets, drawing significant online engagement.
Despite her success, Hanson remains politically isolated, with major parties reluctant to align with her. However, Joyce’s potential defection to One Nation could alter the conservative landscape. Former Queensland premier Rob Borbidge warns against aligning with One Nation, citing past experiences where such associations proved detrimental.
“When times are tough and people are unhappy, that’s always a time when you get a drift to the protest parties. One Nation is always a party of protest,” Borbidge states.
As the political scene evolves, Hanson’s influence could lead to more fragmented elections, with increased reliance on preferences and a reshaping of the conservative movement. Her ability to maintain and grow her support base will be a critical factor in the upcoming elections.
While the future remains uncertain, Pauline Hanson and One Nation’s recent successes highlight a significant shift in Australian politics, reflecting broader global trends and the enduring appeal of populist rhetoric.
