With One Nation experiencing a significant surge in the polls, political analysts and voters alike are keenly observing which parliamentary seats the party might secure in the upcoming elections. This development follows a notable performance in the 2025 elections, where One Nation made its presence felt in several key constituencies.
The immediate focus is on the seats where One Nation demonstrated its strongest polling in 2025. Notably, the party reached the final pairing of candidates in two seats after preferences were distributed: the Labor-held seat of Hunter in New South Wales and Maranoa in Queensland, the latter being the stronghold of National Party Leader David Littleproud. In both instances, One Nation candidates initially finished third in first preferences but ascended to second place through preference flows from other right-of-center parties, including Family First, Trumpet of Patriots, Libertarians, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, and Gerard Rennick’s People First.
Key Seats and the Three-Candidate Preferred Count
In total, there were 26 seats where One Nation was among the final three candidates during the distribution of preferences, a stage known as the three-candidate preferred count (3CP). Of these, 25 were contests between Labor, the Coalition, and One Nation. An exception was Indi, held by Independent Helen Haines, which has been excluded from this analysis due to Haines’ strong preference flows from other candidates.
Beyond these 25 seats, One Nation’s rising popularity suggests that the party could enter the three-candidate count in additional constituencies. However, some of these may prove more challenging to win, depending on the strength of the incumbent party’s primary vote. For instance, in seats like Burt, where Labor’s primary vote was particularly robust in 2025, One Nation’s chances may be slimmer.
Geographic and Political Distribution
Of the 25 key seats identified, 12 are located in Queensland, six in New South Wales, three in Victoria, two in Western Australia, and one each in South Australia and Tasmania. When splitting the Liberal National Party (LNP) into its constituent parts, 12 of these seats are held by the Nationals, seven by the Liberals, and six by Labor. Notably, two-thirds of these seats are situated outside the capital cities, with the remainder generally found in the outer suburbs of capitals.
Understanding the Data
The accompanying table, which is not displayed here, provides detailed insights into these seats. It includes the state, electorate name, and the winning party in 2025, alongside the 3CP percentages for Labor, the Liberal or National Party, and One Nation. The percentages highlighted in bold represent the 3CP counts for the winning candidate in each seat. The table is organized in ascending order of the winning candidate’s percentage vote, indicating that seats at the top are most vulnerable to a One Nation victory, given their lower 3CP vote for the incumbent.
Based on historical election data and One Nation’s past performance, these seats are where the party is expected to perform well, particularly those in the top half of the table.
Potential Impact and Future Implications
This analysis underscores the potential for One Nation to make significant electoral gains if the party maintains or increases its current polling momentum. Should One Nation achieve a 25% polling rate in the next election, it could potentially secure seats across rural and regional Australia, areas predominantly controlled by the National and Liberal Parties.
Political experts suggest that this shift could alter the balance of power in the Australian parliament, particularly in regions where traditional party loyalties are waning. The implications of a stronger One Nation presence could lead to shifts in policy focus, especially on issues resonating with rural and regional voters.
As the political landscape evolves, the upcoming elections will serve as a critical barometer for One Nation’s influence and the broader dynamics within Australian politics. Observers will be closely monitoring these developments, as they could herald significant changes in the nation’s political fabric.
