The latest DemosAU/Capital Brief survey, conducted between January and March, reveals a seismic shift in Australian political dynamics. If an election were held today, One Nation could secure up to 55 seats, marking a dramatic rise in their primary vote share to 27 percent. This represents a significant 10-point increase since the previous October-November survey and a staggering 20-point surge since the May 2025 election. Meanwhile, Labor leads with 29 percent, while the Coalition lags behind at 21 percent, and The Greens hold 12 percent.
Labor’s primary vote has seen a decline, dropping four percentage points from 33 percent since late last year. The Coalition and The Greens have also experienced minor losses, shedding three and one point respectively. The analysis by DemosAU employs a multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) model to project these results across all 150 federal seats.
One Nation’s Surge and Its Implications
According to DemosAU’s projections, Labor is poised to retain a strong lead, potentially securing between 77-86 seats, albeit with a reduced majority. One Nation, however, is projected to win 46-55 seats, positioning itself as the main opposition party. The Liberals might capture 9-15 seats, the Nationals could be wiped out with 0-2 seats, The Greens might secure 0-3, and independents could win 2-6.
This development follows a series of polls indicating a remarkable rise in support for the right-wing party, primarily at the expense of the Coalition. The timing is critical, as it comes just days before the South Australian election, where the Liberals face the risk of a total state wipe-out.
“I’ve been on the ground in South Australia all week ahead of the state election tomorrow and I know what kind of support One Nation is receiving here,” Pauline Hanson told news.com.au. “Ultimately elections are the only polls which really matter.”
Expert Analysis and Historical Context
DemosAU’s October-November MRP had already indicated One Nation winning 12 federal seats, a significant leap for Pauline Hanson’s party. George Hasanakos, DemosAU’s director of research, emphasized the comprehensive nature of this poll, stating, “This is the most comprehensive poll conducted since the 2025 election and shows the Coalition would be relegated to the crossbench if an election were held today.”
Hasanakos further explained, “Based on this model, One Nation would become the major opposition party, capturing all of the National Party’s electorates and most of those held by the Liberals. We also see One Nation making inroads in the Labor vote in the urban fringes of several capital cities including Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne.”
The rise of One Nation has been largely attributed to concerns over immigration. Recent data shows net overseas migration for the September quarter of 2025 reaching 87,821, suggesting the government is on track to exceed Treasury’s forecast of 260,000 for 2025-26.
Political Reactions and Future Implications
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has criticized One Nation’s stance, accusing them of wanting to revert Australia to the 1950s. In a speech to the Australian Automotive Dealer Association, he remarked, “There will be some politicians, some of which have risen up recently in the polling, who essentially are appealing to, ‘Vote for us and the world will stop,’ or worse still, we’ll go back to the Australia of the 1950s or 60s.”
The surge in support for One Nation has prompted major parties to recalibrate their strategies. The Coalition, in particular, has initiated changes with Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan taking leadership roles, aiming to reclaim voters lost to One Nation.
“The surge in support has certainly sent a message to the major parties and we can expect the Coalition especially to focus its efforts on winning back the voters it has lost to One Nation,” Hasanakos noted.
By the Numbers: Projected Seat Distribution
- Labor leads in 83 seats (56 firm, 20 lean, 7 in doubt)
- One Nation leads in 52 seats (23 firm, 25 lean, 4 in doubt)
- The Coalition in 9 seats (5 firm, 1 lean, 3 in doubt)
- The Greens in 1 seat (1 in doubt)
- Others in 5 seats (1 firm, 1 lean, 3 in doubt)
Seats where One Nation is firmly in front include Fairfax (QLD), Fadden (QLD), Canning (WA), and others. Those leaning towards One Nation include Gilmore (NSW), La Trobe (VIC), Bowman (QLD), among others. Marginal seats too close to call but where One Nation leads include Hawke (VIC), Blair (QLD), and Lindsay (NSW).
While these projections are significant, DemosAU cautions that the federal election is still two years away, and it remains uncertain whether One Nation can sustain its momentum. The political landscape is dynamic, and the coming months will be crucial in shaping the future of Australian politics.
