Two new federal polls conducted by DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog reveal a significant shift in Australia’s political landscape, with One Nation gaining traction at the expense of Labor and the Greens. The surveys indicate a combined primary vote decline for Labor and the Greens, while One Nation continues its upward trajectory. Meanwhile, the Coalition shows no signs of a boost following Angus Taylor’s replacement of Sussan Ley.
At the 2025 federal election, Labor and the Greens secured a combined primary vote share of 46.8%, whereas the Coalition, One Nation, and Trumpet of Patriots garnered 40.1%. The latest polls suggest a reversal, with the total right vote now at 49% and the left at 41–42%.
DemosAU Poll: A Surge for One Nation
A national DemosAU poll conducted from February 16–20 with a sample of 1,551 voters shows Labor at 29% of the primary vote, down by one point since mid-January. One Nation, however, has surged by four points to 28%, while the Coalition remains steady at 21%. The Greens have dropped by one point to 12%, and all Others have decreased by two points to 10%.
Although no two-party estimate was provided, seat projections indicate Labor winning 76–85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, enough for a majority but down from January’s 87–95. One Nation is projected to win 43–54 seats, a significant increase from 29–38, while the Coalition is expected to secure 9–20 seats, slightly down from 10–22. The Greens remain unchanged at 0–2 seats, and all Others are projected to win 3–7 seats, a decrease from 6–11.
Anthony Albanese’s net positive rating has fallen by three points to -17, with 46% of respondents viewing him negatively and 29% positively. Angus Taylor’s initial net positive is -4, showing an improvement of 14 points over Sussan Ley. Pauline Hanson’s net positive has improved by four points to -1.
In a three-way preferred Prime Minister question, Albanese leads with 37%, followed by Hanson at 25% and Taylor at 19%.
Fox & Hedgehog Poll: Labor’s Narrow Lead
The Fox & Hedgehog poll, conducted from February 17–19 with a sample of 1,625, shows Labor at 30% of the primary vote, a one-point increase since early January. One Nation has risen by four points to 25%, while the Coalition has dropped by one point to 24%. The Greens have decreased by two points to 12%, and all Others have fallen by two points to 9%.
In a “three party preferred” scenario, Labor holds 44%, One Nation 29%, and the Coalition 27%. Respondent preferences give Labor a slim 51–49 lead over the Coalition, marking a two-point gain for the latter. Labor leads One Nation by 53–47, reflecting a three-point gain for One Nation.
Albanese’s net approval remains unchanged at -15, with 47% disapproving and 32% approving. Taylor’s net approval is +3, a significant improvement from Ley’s -13. Hanson’s net approval has increased by 12 points to +9.
On key issues, 45% of respondents rated the cost of living as the most important, followed by housing at 18% and immigration at 13%. When comparing party capabilities, the right holds a 44–32 lead over the left on cost of living, a 41–32 lead on housing, and a 53–26 lead on immigration.
International Relations and Regional Polls
The Resolve poll, conducted for Nine newspapers, delves into international relations, revealing Australians’ perceptions of global leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin has a net likeability of -60, while United States President Donald Trump stands at -41, and Chinese President Xi Jinping at -26. In contrast, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky enjoys a positive net likeability of +22.
The US’s net likeability has dropped to -17, a decline of 21 points since October. Meanwhile, China’s net likeability is -24, the UK’s is +41, Japan’s +53, and New Zealand’s +67.
Regarding perceived threats, 31% of respondents view China as the greatest threat, a significant drop of 23 points since January 2023. The US is seen as a threat by 17%, and Russia by 5%. On the Taiwan issue, 62% believe it is a sovereign nation, and 36% think Australia should support Taiwan in any conflict with China.
In Tasmania, a federal EMRS poll indicates Labor leading the Liberals by 60–40 after preferences, maintaining the same margin against One Nation. In Braddon, One Nation and Labor are tied at 50–50, with Labor winning comfortably in other seats.
Queensland Polls: LNP Dominance
In Queensland, a DemosAU and Premier National poll shows the Liberal National Party (LNP) leading with 34% of the primary vote, despite a three-point drop since October. Labor trails at 28%, and One Nation has surged to 21%, a seven-point increase. The Greens and all Others have seen slight declines.
The LNP leads Labor by 56–44 after preferences, marking a two-point gain. Premier David Crisafulli enjoys a net +16 approval, while Labor leader Steven Miles has a net -10. Crisafulli leads Miles as preferred premier by 43–32.
As the political climate heats up, these polls underscore the shifting dynamics in Australian politics, with One Nation’s rise posing a challenge to traditional party strongholds. The coming months will reveal whether these trends translate into tangible electoral gains.
