February 18, 2026 — One Nation’s Victorian branch is grappling with a financial shortfall as it prepares for the upcoming state election. Despite receiving less than $100 in donations last year, the party claims its membership in Victoria has surged threefold. This financial constraint raises questions about the party’s ability to sustain its campaign efforts, even as recent polls suggest a significant rise in support.
One Nation, which saw its first Victorian MP, Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, elected to the upper house in 2022, has been gaining traction in recent federal and state polls. The Resolve Political Monitor for The Age reported that support for the party at the state level was at 11 percent, with other polls indicating figures in the 20s. This marks a notable shift in the political landscape, challenging the traditional two-party system.
Financial Struggles and Legal Challenges
In the last financial year, One Nation received only $97.64 from two donors in Victoria. Additional donations amounting to $1269 have been made since, primarily from former federal McEwen candidate Jeremy Johnson, who is eyeing a state seat. However, these funds are insufficient for a robust state campaign, as federal donations cannot be transferred to the Victorian campaign due to legal restrictions.
The High Court is currently reviewing a challenge to Victoria’s donation laws, which could potentially ease fundraising efforts for minor parties like One Nation. Despite these financial hurdles, the party’s consistent polling strength suggests that cash flow might not be as critical in the current media environment.
Membership Growth and Electoral Strategy
According to One Nation state president Warren Pickering, the party’s membership in Victoria has at least tripled, possibly quadrupled, over the past year. The party has established branches in approximately 60 percent of federal electorates in the state, indicating a strategic expansion.
The upcoming Nepean byelection, set for May 2, will serve as a litmus test for One Nation’s ability to convert polling numbers into actual votes. The party plans to field candidates in every seat in the November election, with about 10 candidates already shortlisted.
Challenges from Major Parties
Both Coalition and Labor insiders, speaking anonymously, have expressed skepticism about One Nation’s infrastructure capabilities, citing past issues with candidate selection and campaign management. Nonetheless, they acknowledge the potential threat posed by the party’s growing support.
For One Nation, securing upper house seats is a more feasible goal. Pickering mentioned that the party has dual strategies, contingent on whether the state government reforms the voting system for the upper house. Abolishing group voting tickets could benefit One Nation, which does not collaborate with preference whisperer Glenn Druery.
Policy Platform and Regional Focus
One Nation has traditionally found success in regional and outer suburban areas. Pickering noted that the recent membership surge includes metropolitan Melbourne, where the party aims to increase its activities. However, major-party MPs in Melbourne’s outer suburbs report limited visibility of One Nation in their communities thus far.
The party’s policy platform, still in development, will likely address law and order, energy affordability, and the abolition of the treaty with First Peoples. An “Australians first” housing policy is also on the agenda, although details remain sparse. Pickering suggested that international students and visa-holders are impacting housing availability, a claim that housing experts contest.
Brendan Coates, director of the Grattan Institute’s housing and economic security program, stated, “Demand from international students has a modest impact on housing affordability. Reducing their numbers would slightly lower housing costs but at a significant economic cost.”
Looking Ahead
As One Nation prepares for the state election, its ability to navigate financial constraints while capitalizing on its growing support will be critical. The party’s success could reshape Victoria’s political landscape, challenging established parties and altering the balance of power in the upper house.
The outcome of the High Court’s decision on donation laws and the results of the Nepean byelection will be pivotal in determining One Nation’s trajectory in Victorian politics.
