Researchers have issued a stark warning that the obesity rate among U.S. adults is expected to surge to 47% by 2035. This projection, detailed in a new report published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), highlights significant increases particularly among certain ethnic groups and age demographics. However, experts assert that this trend can be reversed through education on lifestyle changes and improved access to healthy foods.
The analysis forecasts that by 2035, approximately 126 million U.S. adults will be living with obesity, a sharp rise from the current estimate of 107 million adults, or 42% of the population. This anticipated increase is even more pronounced when compared to the 34 million adults, or 20% of the population, who were classified as obese in 1990.
Contradictory Trends and Public Health Concerns
This alarming projection contrasts with a Gallup poll from October 2025, which suggested a slight decrease in obesity rates over the past three years, attributing the decline to the use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. However, these figures were based on self-reported data, which may not fully capture the scope of the issue.
The researchers behind the current study have labeled the obesity trend as a “large public health burden,” urging policymakers to leverage this data to formulate effective health strategies. They emphasize the association between obesity and adverse health outcomes, which contribute to rising healthcare costs.
“Given the association between obesity and adverse health outcomes, and the resulting rapidly rising healthcare costs, these findings underscore the importance of addressing the burden of obesity in the U.S.,” the study authors wrote.
Understanding the Multifaceted Causes
Kristin Kirkpatrick, RD, a dietitian at the Cleveland Clinic, points to the multifaceted reasons behind the rising obesity rates. “Our food has changed, which is a major factor,” she explained. “However, it’s not the only aspect of the story. Added stress, screen time, sleep patterns, and concurrent increases in poor mental and physical health have all contributed.”
Dr. David Cutler, a family medicine physician, agrees that the rise in obesity is largely due to dietary changes, but also highlights other contributing factors such as the intestinal microbiome, exercise habits, and behavioral disorders.
“This rise in obesity rates is largely attributable to changes in our diet,” Cutler told Healthline. “But there are factors other than diet also contributing to increasing obesity.”
Dr. Mir Ali, a bariatric surgeon, adds that a sedentary lifestyle and the proliferation of processed foods have exacerbated the problem. “There is more of a sedentary lifestyle with people staying inside their homes and not being active,” he noted.
Data and Demographic Variations
The report’s conclusions are based on an analysis of body mass index (BMI) data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and other sources, encompassing data from over 11 million U.S. adults. The researchers observed an overall upward trend nationwide, with the highest obesity prevalence projected in Midwestern and Southern states.
Significant disparities were noted among different ethnic and racial groups. Currently, 40% of U.S. white male adults have obesity compared to 42% of Hispanic males, nearly 50% of Hispanic females, and 57% of non-Hispanic Black female adults. Obesity prevalence is also highest among adults aged 45 to 64, with the largest increases expected in younger adults, particularly females under 35.
“While there are large differences by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and state, the prevalence of obesity is high and forecasted to continue increasing for all groups,” the researchers wrote.
Health Implications and Future Directions
Obesity, a chronic condition characterized by excess body fat, is linked to an increased risk of numerous health issues, including cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and certain cancers. A recent report from the American Heart Association highlighted that nearly half of U.S. adults live with heart disease, largely due to rising obesity rates.
The introduction of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy has provided some individuals with tools to manage their weight, but experts caution that these medications are not a panacea. They emphasize the need for comprehensive lifestyle changes, including a balanced diet and regular exercise.
“GLP-1s are also only one side of the story — being on one alone does not guarantee success,” said Kirkpatrick.
Dr. Cutler expresses skepticism about reversing the obesity trend, citing the difficulty in changing human behavior. “My guess is that obesity rates will continue to rise,” he said, noting the challenge of altering eating behaviors.
Dr. Ali underscores the importance of early education in weight management, advocating for a societal effort to instill healthy habits from a young age. “It’s easy to tell people what they should do, but it’s more difficult to get them to do it,” he remarked.
As the U.S. grapples with this growing public health crisis, the path forward will require a multifaceted approach that combines medical interventions with widespread lifestyle education and policy changes aimed at creating healthier environments for all citizens.
