A Coalition senator has issued a stern warning to the Liberal Party, urging it not to become “One Nation lite” in response to the growing influence of Pauline Hanson’s party. This caution comes in the wake of Barnaby Joyce’s high-profile defection from the Nationals to One Nation, which has intensified the competition for Senate seats in New South Wales.
New South Wales senator and prominent moderate Maria Kovacic acknowledged that Joyce’s decision to lead One Nation’s Senate ticket in the state poses a significant challenge for the Liberals in maintaining their current seats. The Coalition typically runs a joint Senate ticket in NSW, with the Liberals expected to occupy the first and third positions, while the Nationals take the second spot in the upcoming 2028 ballot.
Impact of Joyce’s Defection
The political landscape in NSW has shifted dramatically with Joyce’s move. After securing the sixth Senate seat in the May election with 6% of the primary vote, One Nation’s support has approximately doubled nationwide, according to various opinion polls. Independent psephologist Kevin Bonham noted that even a slight increase in One Nation’s vote share could jeopardize the Liberals’ hold on the third Coalition seat.
“One Nation would be a serious chance of securing the third Coalition seat even if its vote was only marginally higher than at the May ballot,” Bonham explained.
Kovacic, along with fellow moderate Dave Sharma, is up for re-election in 2028. As the Coalition braces for the electoral battle against Joyce, Kovacic emphasized that the Liberals must not mimic the populist strategies of One Nation.
Liberal Party’s Strategic Direction
“That third position that Barnaby Joyce and One Nation will now be contesting for, or trying to gain, it will be much more challenging for us to retain that spot,” Kovacic stated. “But regardless, that is something we will fight to do. But in doing so, we need to focus on the fact that in the same way that people talk about us not being Labor lite, we also need to understand that we cannot be One Nation lite. We need to be Liberals because that is who we are.”
Kovacic underscored the importance of developing policies centered on “sensible and practical outcomes” rather than those rooted in populism. This stance comes as the Coalition, after following Hanson in abandoning a net zero emissions target, is now deliberating One Nation’s other major focus: reducing immigration.
Debate Over Immigration Policy
The opposition is anticipated to unveil a set of “principles” to guide its migration policy, outlining how it would determine intake numbers, though specific targets for net overseas migration are not yet set. Reports have surfaced of anxiety among Liberal MPs regarding the language used in this debate, particularly the term “mass migration.”
Joyce, in a joint radio interview with Hanson, asserted that she had “driven the political agenda,” crediting her with influencing the Liberals and Nationals to drop their net zero emissions target. “I’m philosophically aligned with One Nation. I’m a conservative and I’m not embarrassed about it,” Joyce declared.
Repercussions of Joyce’s Move
Joyce’s switch to One Nation had been anticipated for weeks following a public fallout with the Nationals, especially with leader David Littleproud, who removed Joyce from the frontbench after sidelining him during the 2025 election campaign. Littleproud expressed disappointment over Joyce’s decision to join what he described as a “party of protest.”
“The Nationals supported Barnaby through many difficult times, including during his darkest moments,” Littleproud remarked. “Barnaby has chosen to turn his back on the Nationals and on his electorate and instead join a party of protest, which is never able to achieve anything other than headlines.”
Despite controversies, Joyce has maintained a loyal support base in New England since transitioning from a Queensland Senate seat in 2013. He managed a 1.85% swing at the May election, increasing his margin to 17%.
Looking Ahead
The political dynamics in NSW and the broader national landscape are set for a turbulent period as the Liberals navigate the challenges posed by One Nation’s rise and internal debates over policy direction. The unfolding scenario will test the party’s ability to balance its core values with the shifting demands of the electorate.
As the 2028 election approaches, the strategies adopted by the Liberals in response to these developments will be crucial in determining their electoral success and influence in the upper house.
