A groundbreaking study led by the University of Oxford, recently published in The Lancet Planetary Health, has revealed that weather-related health issues account for approximately 3% of the National Health Service (NHS) budget in England. This study is the first of its kind to directly link daily temperature variations to healthcare usage and expenditure across both primary and secondary care settings.
Researchers analyzed data from 4,366,981 patients registered at 244 General Practitioner (GP) practices across England between April 2007 and June 2019. Their findings indicate that exposure to temperatures outside the mild range of 18°C to 21°C could result in healthcare costs amounting to around £3 billion annually for NHS England. This figure is comparable to the NHS’s spending on dental services.
Winter Pressures and Healthcare Demand
The study’s release coincides with NHS leaders’ preparations for the upcoming winter, a period traditionally associated with increased healthcare demand. The UK often experiences cold weather, with temperatures ranging from 0°C to 9°C contributing to 64.4% of the estimated weather-related healthcare burden. This increase reflects the cumulative impact of colder conditions on NHS resources during winter months.
Interestingly, the study also highlights a decline in healthcare usage during extreme cold spells, when temperatures drop below 0°C. This suggests that hazardous conditions such as snow and black ice may deter individuals from seeking necessary medical care.
Emerging Challenges of Heatwaves
While cold weather has historically posed the greatest challenge to the NHS, the study underscores the growing threat of heatwaves, exacerbated by climate change. Although very hot days were infrequent during the study period, they were associated with sharp, same-day increases in healthcare demand, particularly in Accident & Emergency (A&E) departments and prescription services.
Dr. Patrick Fahr, Senior Health Economist at the University of Oxford and lead author of the study, commented on the findings:
‘Temperature affects the NHS every day, but until now nobody knew how costly this was. Three percent is both a small and a large figure, because these costs are concentrated on cold and hot days only when demand is spiking. Historically, the winter season has been and remains associated with additional health risks, which occur routinely each year, however heatwaves are emerging as a new challenge.’
Impact on Vulnerable Populations
The study identifies older adults as the demographic most affected by temperature extremes. This finding underscores the need for targeted interventions to protect vulnerable populations from the health risks associated with both cold and hot weather.
Dr. Fahr further explained:
‘In the data, heat tends to be associated with short, same day increases in demand and pressure on services, requiring a rapid response. Overall, the practical implication is that planning for temperature-related variation in service use is a year-round issue. Vulnerable people, such as older adults, can be particularly at risk.’
Financial Implications and Future Planning
The study’s financial implications are significant. If the 3% cost estimate is applied to NHS England’s planned 2023/24 spending on acute services, specialized services, and primary medical care, which totals £101.4 billion, the weather-related costs could amount to £3 billion annually. This figure surpasses the £2.899 billion spent on NHS dentistry in 2022/23, as reported by the British Dental Association.
The findings highlight the necessity for the NHS to adapt its planning and resources to accommodate weather-related healthcare demands. As climate change continues to influence weather patterns, the NHS must prepare for both the traditional winter challenges and the emerging threats posed by heatwaves.
In conclusion, the study provides a crucial insight into the financial and operational impacts of weather on the NHS, emphasizing the need for comprehensive, year-round planning to mitigate these effects and ensure the healthcare system’s resilience in the face of climate change.
