September 1, 2025
The next pandemic disease outbreak is not a matter of “if,” but “when,” according to leading experts. The identity of the pathogen remains a mystery, but the conditions for a global spread have already been established. Medical science warns that a novel, highly infectious pathogen is incubating within the human population, ready to emerge.
Since the year 2000, the world has faced seven pandemics: SARS, swine flu (H1N1), MERS, Ebola, Zika, monkeypox, and COVID-19, which claimed 27 million lives. Additionally, the HIV-AIDS pandemic continues to rage, having killed 44 million people to date. As WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently stated, the next pandemic is not a “theoretical risk” but an “epidemiological certainty.”
Pandemics: A Human-Made Crisis
Pandemics are not acts of nature or divine intervention; they are the direct result of human actions and decisions regarding family, food, travel, and lifestyle. These events are largely self-inflicted, often due to ignorance or denial. Pandemics are just one of ten catastrophic threats facing humanity, deeply interconnected with other issues, and cannot be addressed in isolation.
Potential candidates for the next global health crisis include Avian flu and Chikungunya. Avian flu (H5N1) is a highly contagious strain that has spread across the globe, affecting over 560 bird species and 90 mammal species. While human cases are rare, the virus’s high mortality rate makes it a formidable threat.
Chikungunya: A Growing Concern
Chikungunya, spread by infected mosquitoes, presents another potential pandemic threat. Predominantly found in the Americas, Asia, and Africa, it causes severe joint pain and fever, with symptoms often mistaken for dengue or Zika. Although vaccines exist, their availability and use remain limited, with safety concerns halting one vaccine’s distribution in the US.
Drivers of Pandemic Risk
The global community’s vulnerability to pandemics is exacerbated by several factors:
- Overpopulation: High population density facilitates the spread of infectious diseases.
- Overcrowding: Close quarters increase the risk of transmission through air, fluids, and contact.
- Global Travel: With 1.2 billion travelers annually, diseases can quickly cross borders.
- Public Health Decline: Wars, disasters, and political neglect undermine health systems.
- Pathogen Evolution: New, infectious strains may develop from existing microbes.
- Industrial Food Systems: Close contact between humans and animals fosters pathogen spread.
- Drug Resistance: Rising resistance in diseases like TB and malaria complicates treatment.
“The fact that humans are now packed into megacities around the planet like battery chickens makes future pandemics unavoidable.”
Addressing the Challenges
Despite the clear risks, global and national health authorities often avoid discussing overpopulation, overcrowding, and travel due to political sensitivities. Current strategies focus on mitigating outbreaks rather than preventing them, often to placate public outrage.
The anti-mask and anti-vaccine movements further complicate pandemic preparedness, prioritizing personal convenience over public safety. Vaccines have saved millions of lives, yet resistance to them increases global risk.
The modern food system’s environmental impact has also unleashed new pathogens by destroying natural habitats. The WHO’s move towards a global Pandemic Convention is a crucial step, but without addressing root causes like overpopulation and unsustainable practices, it will only mitigate rather than prevent future outbreaks.
COVID-19 served as a warning, not the catastrophic event itself. The world must heed this wake-up call and take comprehensive action to prevent the next pandemic from becoming a devastating reality.
