In 1960, a group of researchers from the University of Illinois developed a mathematical equation that predicted the end of the world, pinpointing the date as Friday, November 13, 2026. According to their calculations, humanity has just 308 days left. The study, led by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot, presented a complex formula that suggested the Earth’s population would reach an unsustainable level, leading to catastrophic consequences.
The researchers’ grim forecast was based on the rapid growth of the global population, which had nearly doubled from 1.6 billion in 1900 to three billion in 1960. Despite the devastation of two world wars, technological advancements had thus far managed to sustain this growth. However, the scientists warned that this trend could not continue indefinitely.
Understanding the Equation
The formula developed by von Foerster and his colleagues was rooted in the principle of ‘adequate technology,’ which they believed had sustained humanity for over 100 generations. Their study concluded that while technological advancements had delayed the inevitable, the increasing population density would eventually lead to a struggle for survival.
“Thus, we may conclude with considerable confidence that the principle of ‘adequate technology’, which proved to be correct for over 100 generations, will hold for at least three more.”
The researchers argued that continued population growth would lead to a scenario where humans would ‘struggle for existence in a finite environment.’ They suggested that the population growth rate was accelerating towards infinity, with the critical date being November 13, 2026.
Revisiting the Predictions
Fast forward 66 years, and the predicted doomsday has not materialized. The global population now stands at approximately 8.2 billion, but the rate of increase has slowed significantly. The United Nations projects that the population will peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s before declining by around 700 million by 2100.
This shift is largely attributed to women in some of the world’s largest countries choosing to have fewer children, effectively halting the exponential growth that von Foerster and his team feared. The threat of a 2026 apocalypse now seems unlikely.
Modern Perspectives on Earth’s Future
While the original study’s predictions may have been dramatic, they have sparked ongoing discussions about humanity’s future. Recently, scientists from Toho University in Japan, in collaboration with NASA researchers, have offered a different perspective on Earth’s lifespan.
Their study, titled ‘The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere,’ ties the fate of life on Earth to the Sun’s evolution. Using 400,000 computer simulations, they predicted that Earth would become uninhabitable in the year 1,000,002,021 due to extreme heat, evaporated oceans, and a thinned atmosphere.
“The surface of the Earth will become so hot that even the most resilient microorganisms won’t make it.”
Implications and Reflections
The 1960 study serves as a reminder of the challenges posed by unchecked population growth and resource consumption. While the immediate threat of a population-induced apocalypse has diminished, the broader concerns about sustainability and environmental impact remain relevant.
As humanity continues to grapple with these issues, the importance of sustainable development and technological innovation cannot be overstated. The lessons from von Foerster’s equation underscore the need for proactive measures to ensure a viable future for generations to come.
In conclusion, while the world may not end on November 13, 2026, the discussions sparked by these predictions continue to shape our understanding of humanity’s place in the universe and the steps necessary to secure its future.
