During the final stretch of Canada’s spring election campaign, Mark Carney highlighted China as the country’s “biggest geopolitical risk,” citing its attempts to meddle in elections and disrupt Canada’s Arctic claims. This week, Carney’s government plane will land in Beijing, marking the first visit by a Canadian prime minister in nearly a decade. The trip underscores Ottawa’s efforts to repair a strained relationship with a global superpower that wields its vast market as both a carrot and a stick.
The visit, born of meticulous diplomatic planning, also reflects the pressures of a trade war with the United States and the urgent need for Canada to diversify its exports. This necessity arises from increasing economic challenges posed by its largest trading partner.
Diplomatic Tightrope: Balancing Relations with China
“There is a risk that China views Canada as weak, struggling, and abused by President Donald Trump’s administration – and it sees an opportunity to present itself as the reasonable and stable adult in the room,” says Michael Kovrig, a former diplomat and senior Asia adviser for the International Crisis Group. The Communist party has given up persuading people that they’re benevolent. Instead, they offer competence and predictability. But it also gives Mark Carney leverage to say: if you think our relationship with the United States is getting worse, what are you willing to give us?”
Despite the diplomatic cordiality on display, those briefing Carney “don’t have any illusions about the kind of leader they’re dealing with,” says Kovrig. “This is a fraught relationship.”
Historical Tensions and Economic Stakes
Kovrig himself is a testament to the perils of the Canada-China relationship. In 2018, Chinese officials detained Kovrig and fellow Canadian Michael Spavor, holding them for over 1,000 days in response to what they called a “political frame-up” against telecom executive Meng Wanzhou. The arrests halted any progress towards a long-sought free trade agreement. For years, Ottawa has eyed China as a key market for its heavy oil, metallurgical coal, timber, and agricultural products.
Carney frames his visit as an attempt to establish a “stable” relationship with China, despite allegations of Chinese interference in Canada’s electoral system. Although these efforts are not believed to have swayed election outcomes, they have strained bilateral relations.
Trade Challenges and Strategic Shifts
China has shown a willingness to retaliate against Canadian industries. After Canada joined the US in imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024, Beijing responded with 100% duties on Canadian canola oil and meal, followed by an additional 75.8% anti-dumping tariff, effectively shutting Canadian producers out of their second-largest market.
“In a normal circumstance, would you do any business with someone involved in blackmail, hostage-taking, and mass human rights violations?” asks Kovrig. “Of course not. But China is the outlier case because it’s so large that you can’t just shun it. You have to carve out a space for diplomacy and economic opportunities if Canada wants to defend its sovereignty and remain prosperous.”
Shifting from ‘America First’
Since becoming prime minister, Carney has aimed to reset Canada-China relations, promoting a “reliance to resilience” strategy to diversify trade away from the US, which previously accounted for 76% of Canada’s exports. The “America First” policy from the White House has forced Carney to reconsider the foundational structure of Canada’s economy.
While Canada’s federal government has pursued new partnerships through its Indo-Pacific strategy, it also seeks to grow its presence in China, which currently accounts for only 4% of exports. Following a series of high-level meetings, Carney’s January state visit reflects a “very deliberate and incremental diplomatic dance” between the two nations, according to Roland Paris, director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.
Complexities of Diplomacy and Economic Opportunities
Paris, a former foreign affairs adviser, notes that Beijing and Ottawa have overlapping interests, with talks expected to focus on energy, agriculture, international security, and trade. However, hopes for the removal of retaliatory tariffs require careful diplomatic maneuvering.
“The logic for the last two Canadian governments was that it’s possible to have trade with China while also addressing points of difference,” he said. “You can walk and chew gum at the same time.”
Canada has long championed its liberal values in foreign policy, a stance that has frustrated Chinese officials. Among the tensions are human rights abuses, electoral interference, and Chinese actions in the Arctic.
“It’s important to remember that China is not our friend,” says Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, a senior fellow at the University of Ottawa. “This is not a country that follows reasoned arguments and wants friendly relations. The geopolitical and transnational repression risks that have long concerned Canada have not changed.”
Looking Ahead: Opportunities and Cautions
McCuaig-Johnston points to China’s execution of four Canadian citizens and its increased Arctic presence as ongoing concerns. She acknowledges the need for market diversification but warns against Beijing’s encroachment into the clean energy sector. Her research highlights joint ventures ending with Canadian companies losing intellectual property to Chinese counterparts.
“The reality is: we should stay miles away from discussions on aerospace technology, AI, and critical minerals,” she cautions. “This is a challenging diplomatic trip, and I hope we can make safe trade deals without risking other sectors.”
Analysts predict Carney’s successful visit could lead to near-term agreements benefiting both sides. However, Kovrig hopes Carney will also address political detainees and rights violations behind closed doors, warning that Beijing may use Carney’s reputation to bolster its own image.
“There is a belief that because China is big, it must offer vast commercial opportunities. But few foreign firms reliably make profits there that they can repatriate. Most of what Canada sells China is energy and commodities,” says Kovrig. “Beijing’s power depends on fear, and its legitimacy rests on myths. We can push back against all of that. We can and we must.”
