Thumping election victories can have unintended consequences, often leading to hubris and eventual defeat. This notion is echoed by Labor elder Wayne Swan in an essay published by the Chifley Research Centre, warning his party of the perils of overconfidence. “The precise moment you believe you’ve mastered politics is when politics masters you,” writes Swan, reflecting on past political cycles.
In 1993, Paul Keating achieved a significant electoral victory, only to face complete devastation three years later, transitioning from government to opposition in a single cycle. Similarly, Campbell Newman, the LNP leader, claimed the largest state victory in Queensland history in 2012, yet by 2015, he had lost not just the government but his own seat as well. Swan’s essay serves as a cautionary tale for Labor’s current leaders, urging them to remain vigilant.
Labor’s Three-Year Challenge
Swan’s essay is a timely reminder for Labor’s triumphant class of 2025, who now hold the party’s most significant majority in 80 years. “These seats are instruments of change, not symbols of triumph,” he writes, emphasizing the need for Labor to prove its worth to the electorate over the next three years. Swan highlights concerns about the party’s declining membership and support among working Australians, particularly in outer suburbs and regional areas.
Despite achieving a record two-party preferred vote, Swan warns that a national primary vote in the mid-thirties demands more work. “For too long we have been in denial about low membership in the Labor Party,” he writes, urging the party to address these challenges while it has the opportunity.
Economic Roundtable: A Platform for Change
Swan’s concerns coincide with the Coalition’s ongoing struggles, providing a backdrop for this week’s economic roundtable. While the Liberal and National parties grapple with their political relevance, Labor faces the challenge of meeting voter expectations. Treasurer Jim Chalmers’s roundtable has received mixed reviews, but it has laid the groundwork for potential reforms.
Over three days, the roundtable facilitated 327 contributions, leading to several “quick wins” for the government. These include accelerating environmental approvals for renewables projects and exploring road user charging options. However, tax reform remains a contentious issue, with no consensus on a comprehensive review akin to the Ken Henry-style approach.
“The potential for progress is stunningly fragile — and especially so in tax, our most poisoned well,” warns budget economist Chris Richardson, urging caution in the face of potential backlash.
Tax Reform and Future Challenges
Chalmers has outlined three broad considerations for tax reform: ensuring fairness for working people, providing incentives for business investment, and addressing intergenerational imbalances. In a recent interview, he left the door open for higher taxes on wealth, stating, “Where we can make the tax system fairer, we will.”
Richardson’s cautionary note underscores the delicate nature of the tax reform debate. “Pretty much anyone who was in the room today could generate the three banner headlines that would kill any idea out of this roundtable,” he notes, highlighting the potential for political fallout.
Implications for Labor’s Future
The roundtable has set the stage for challenging budget decisions, including trimming benefits for pensioners and curbing spending growth in the NDIS. These measures reflect the government’s acknowledgment of the need for fiscal discipline while pursuing tax reforms.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has an opportunity to address these challenges without being on a political knife-edge. “The choice belongs to us,” writes Swan. “Not merely winning elections but constructing a movement. Not simply holding office, but wielding power purposefully.”
This week’s roundtable may have initiated a long-overdue debate on difficult topics absent during the election campaign. Whether Labor can capitalize on this momentum remains to be seen, but the groundwork has been laid for meaningful change.
