As the Australian federal parliament prepares to sit for the first time since the recent election, new polling data reveals a commanding lead for the Labor party. According to a Newspoll survey, Labor holds a 57–43 lead over the Coalition, while a Resolve poll shows a similar 56–44 advantage. These figures emerge as the nation awaits the parliamentary session set to begin on Tuesday.
In Tasmania, despite a 3% decline in their statewide vote, Labor is poised to potentially gain a seat. The national Newspoll, conducted likely between July 14 and 18 with around 1,200 participants, indicates primary votes of 36% for Labor, 29% for the Coalition, 12% for the Greens, 8% for One Nation, and 15% for other parties. This marks the lowest primary vote for the Coalition in Newspoll history, which dates back to 1985, and is approximately three points below their election result.
Leadership Approval Ratings
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating has improved to net zero, a ten-point increase since the final pre-election Newspoll. Currently, 47% of respondents are satisfied with his performance, while an equal percentage are dissatisfied. In contrast, Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s first rating stands at -7 net approval, with 42% dissatisfied and 35% satisfied. Albanese leads Ley as the preferred Prime Minister by a margin of 52–32.
“While net zero is better than his negative ratings before the election, it’s a long way from his peak after winning the 2022 election.”
The absence of a significant surge in Albanese’s approval ratings suggests that Labor’s electoral success may reflect voter dissatisfaction with alternatives rather than overwhelming support for Labor itself. The influence of figures like Peter Dutton and Donald Trump was significant in shaping the election outcome, with a DemosAU poll showing 71% of voters opposed to a Prime Minister resembling Trump.
Resolve Poll Insights
The Resolve poll, conducted for Nine newspapers with a sample of 2,311, aligns closely with Newspoll findings, giving Labor a 56–44 lead. Primary votes in this poll are 35% for Labor, 29% for the Coalition, and 12% for the Greens, among others. Albanese’s net approval in Resolve stands at +3, with 45% rating him positively and 42% negatively. Interestingly, Sussan Ley’s Resolve rating is more favorable at +9, with 38% positive and 29% negative.
On broader national sentiment, 28% of respondents expect personal circumstances to improve over the next year, while an equal percentage anticipate a decline. Nationally, 42% foresee worsening conditions, compared to 25% who are optimistic. The poll also highlights a narrow opposition to gender quotas within the Liberal party, with 33% opposing and 32% supporting. This sentiment is more pronounced among Coalition voters and men.
“Labor was thought best to handle economic management by 31–30 over the Liberals. On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 30–26.”
Tasmanian Election Updates
In Tasmania, the vote count has progressed from 63% to 73% of enrolled voters, with all pre-poll votes now tallied. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission will begin counting postal votes on Thursday, following legislative changes to ensure no duplicate voting. Postal votes must be received by 10 am on July 29 to be included, with final results expected by August 2.
Political analyst Kevin Bonham has projected 14 seats for the Liberals, ten for Labor, five for the Greens, and four for left-wing independents, leaving two seats undecided. In the electorate of Lyons, a Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate is likely to secure the final seat. Meanwhile, in Bass, a competitive race unfolds between Labor, the Liberals, and the Shooters, with Labor potentially gaining an additional seat despite a 3.1% drop in their statewide vote to 25.9%.
The unfolding political landscape in Tasmania and nationally underscores the dynamic nature of Australian politics as parties navigate voter sentiments and shifting allegiances. As parliament resumes, these polls provide a snapshot of the current political climate, setting the stage for potential legislative and policy shifts in the months ahead.
