In a recent Victorian Resolve poll, Labor has experienced a setback following a surge in August, while federal Labor continues to maintain a strong lead. The poll, conducted for The Age, shows the Coalition holding steady at 33% of the primary vote, while Labor has slipped to 30%, a decrease of two points. The Greens remain unchanged at 12%, independents have risen to 10%, and other parties have increased their share to 15%.
This development comes as federal Labor enjoys a 55–45 lead in the Resolve poll and a 54–46 lead in the Redbridge poll. Notably, One Nation has recorded its highest vote in any poll since 1998, marking a significant moment for the party.
State Dynamics and Leadership Preferences
The Victorian state poll, which was conducted alongside the federal September and October Resolve polls with a sample size of over 1,000, does not typically provide a two-party estimate. However, The Poll Bludger has estimated a “tight result,” emphasizing the importance of preference flows from the 25% of voters supporting independents or other parties.
In terms of leadership, Liberal Brad Battin leads Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan by 33–27 as the preferred premier, an increase from 32–25 in August. Allan’s net likeability remains steady at -21, while Battin’s net likeability stands at +9. The next Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2026, and as the election approaches, state issues may influence voter preferences further.
By the next election, Labor will have governed Victoria for 12 of the last 23 years, potentially invoking an “it’s time” sentiment favoring the Coalition.
Federal Polling and Leadership Ratings
Meanwhile, a national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted from October 7–12 with a sample of 1,800, shows Labor maintaining a 55–45 lead by respondent preferences, unchanged since September. The primary votes indicate 34% for Labor (down one), 28% for the Coalition (up one), 12% for One Nation, 11% for the Greens, 9% for independents, and 7% for others.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval has dropped five points to -6, with 47% of respondents rating his performance as bad and 41% as good. In contrast, Sussan Ley’s net approval has fallen 14 points to -5, although it remains higher than her early October Newspoll rating of -20. Albanese has extended his lead over Ley as the preferred Prime Minister to 40–23 from 38–26 in September.
Policy Preferences and Economic Management
On the question of the Coalition’s future direction, 32% of respondents believe it should move towards the political center, 25% think it should shift to the conservative right, and 11% feel it should not change. Among Coalition voters, the split is 33% for the center, 32% for the right, and 12% for no change.
Labor leads the Liberals on economic management by a narrow 29–28 margin, compared to a 29–29 tie in September. On managing the cost of living, Labor has reversed a previous deficit to lead 28–24, highlighting a shift in public sentiment.
In the September Resolve poll, 40% of respondents rated the cost of living as the most important issue, far surpassing other concerns.
Environmental and Automotive Trends
When asked about potential vehicle purchases, 35% of respondents are considering a petrol or diesel vehicle, 21% a hybrid, and only 11% a fully electric vehicle (EV). The high cost of EVs and a lack of charging infrastructure are cited as significant barriers. By a margin of 56–13, respondents support a road user charge for EV drivers, with 52–15 favoring the use of these funds to expand EV charging infrastructure.
On environmental commitments, 44% of voters support Australia’s continued commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, with Coalition voters showing a narrower margin of 38–31 in favor.
Redbridge Poll Insights
The Poll Bludger reports that a national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted from September 25 to October 7 with a sample of 1,997, gives Labor a 54–46 lead by respondent preferences, marking a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous Redbridge poll. This poll records 34% for Labor (down one), 29% for the Coalition (down one), 14% for One Nation (up three), and 11% for the Greens.
Analyst Kevin Bonham notes that the 14% for One Nation is their best performance in any reputable national poll since their initial peak in 1998.
Respondents are divided 37–37 on whether the Coalition should abandon its support for net zero emissions. By a margin of 47–35, they feel the Albanese Labor government does not have the right priorities, yet by 55–16, they do not believe Ley’s Coalition is ready for government.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, both state and federal dynamics will play crucial roles in shaping the future of Australia’s political environment. With elections on the horizon, parties will need to navigate these complex issues to secure voter support.
