Labor has expanded its national lead according to a recent Resolve poll, while a DemosAU MRP poll suggests that One Nation could secure 12 seats in the House of Representatives. In Victoria, the Coalition holds a narrow lead, and in South Australia, the resignation of the Liberal leader coincides with a significant advantage for Labor in the polls.
A national Resolve poll conducted for Nine newspapers from December 2 to 7, sampling 1,800 respondents, indicates a 55-45 lead for Labor based on respondent preferences. This marks a two-point increase for Labor since the November poll.
Labor’s Growing Momentum
The primary votes from the Resolve poll show Labor at 35% (up two points), the Coalition at 26% (down three), One Nation at 14% (up two), the Greens at 11% (down one), independents at 8% (up one), and others steady at 6%. Based on projected preference flows for the 2025 election, Labor’s lead could extend to above 56-44.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating has improved by six points to +6, with 48% of respondents rating him positively and 42% negatively. Over the past two months, his net approval has surged by 12 points. Despite a decline in the Coalition’s vote, Deputy Leader Sussan Ley’s net approval has risen ten points to +3.
Albanese leads as the preferred Prime Minister by 41-26, an increase from the previous 39-25 margin. On economic issues, Labor is tied with the Liberals at 31-31 for managing the cost of living, a shift from the Liberals’ previous lead. Labor also leads on economic management by 36-33, up from 31-29.
One Nation’s Rising Influence
The DemosAU MRP poll, conducted from October 5 to November 11 with a sample of 6,928, projects Labor winning 98 of the 150 House seats, the Coalition 29, One Nation 12, and others 11. This marks a significant gain for One Nation, which previously held no seats.
Labor leads the Coalition nationally by 56-44, compared to 55.2-44.8 at the election. Primary votes stand at 33% for Labor, 24% for the Coalition, 17% for One Nation, 13% for the Greens, and 13% for others.
The Coalition’s decline since the election and One Nation’s surge allow One Nation to capture seats where the Coalition is third in primary votes. Coalition preferences then bolster One Nation’s position.
Regional Dynamics: Victoria and South Australia
Victoria’s Political Landscape
In Victoria, the Coalition leads 51-49 according to a Resolve poll conducted with federal polling in November and December, sampling over 1,000 respondents. The Coalition’s primary vote has increased to 39%, while Labor’s has decreased to 28%.
Jess Wilson, the new Liberal leader, has a net likeability of +14, the highest since Resolve began polling in 2021. Premier Jacinta Allan’s net likeability is at -17. Wilson leads Allan as the preferred premier by 41-24.
Support for the government’s proposal to judge and sentence young offenders as adults is strong, with 78% in favor.
South Australia’s Shifting Political Scene
Following the resignation of Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia, Ashton Hurn has been elected unopposed as the new leader. A Fox & Hedgehog poll conducted before Tarzia’s resignation shows Labor with a commanding 61-39 lead. Premier Peter Malinauskas enjoys a 51-19 approval rating, while Tarzia’s was 25-17 disapprove.
Labor’s dominance in South Australia is further evidenced by a 43-27 approval rating for the party, compared to a 36-25 disapproval for the Liberals.
Western Australia’s Political Climate
In Western Australia, DemosAU’s first state poll since the March election shows Labor leading 56-44. The primary votes are 41% for Labor, 30% for the Liberals, 6% for the Nationals, 13% for the Greens, and 10% for others.
Premier Roger Cook has a net favorability of +8, while Liberal leader Basil Zempilas is at -3. Despite challenges in housing and cost of living, Labor maintains a strong position.
The polling trends suggest a complex political landscape across Australia, with Labor gaining strength nationally, One Nation making significant inroads, and regional dynamics influencing state politics. As the next elections approach, these shifts could have profound implications for the country’s political future.
