The Australian stock market is poised for a potentially volatile session on Friday as investors digest a mix of global economic signals and corporate results. On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) demonstrated resilience, climbing 0.5% to close at 8,873.8 points. As the week draws to a close, market participants are keenly observing several factors that could influence the index’s performance.
ASX 200 Forecast: A Cautious Start
The Australian share market is expected to open slightly lower on Friday, following a mixed performance on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is anticipated to edge down by 1 point. Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight decline, while the S&P 500 experienced a marginal increase, and the Nasdaq Composite fell modestly. This mixed sentiment from the U.S. could set a cautious tone for Australian investors.
Energy Sector: Rising Oil Prices
Oil prices have been on an upward trajectory, providing a potential boost to ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR). According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price rose by 1.5% to US$63.63 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 1.4% to US$66.56 per barrel. This rise comes ahead of a significant meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which could have further implications for global oil markets.
Cochlear Ltd: Earnings Report in Focus
Investors will be closely monitoring Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) as the hearing solutions company releases its full-year results. Analysts from Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are forecasting a 4.9% increase in total revenue to $2,346 million and a 2.6% rise in underlying net profit after tax to $397 million. The company is also expected to report high-teen earnings per share growth for FY 2026, which could influence its stock performance.
Gold Sector: Impact of Falling Prices
Gold prices have taken a hit, potentially affecting ASX 200 gold shares such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST). CNBC reports that gold futures prices fell by 0.7% to US$3,383.6 an ounce. This decline was triggered by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which has tempered expectations for interest rate cuts. The movement in gold prices could weigh on the performance of mining stocks.
Telecommunications: Telstra’s Valuation
Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) remains a focal point for investors after the company released its full-year results. Analysts at Bell Potter have maintained a “buy” rating on Telstra shares, with an increased price target of $4.75. The broker noted, “We have increased the multiple we apply in the PE ratio valuation from 23x to 24x and also the multiple we apply to the Mobile business in the sum-of-the-parts from 7.5x to 8x. We have also rolled forward the DCF and DDM by a year given we are now in FY26 but there is no change in the WACC we apply of 8.9%.” Despite the adjustments, the recommendation remains to hold, as the price target is a modest discount to the current share price.
As these diverse factors play out, market participants will be watching closely to see if the ASX 200 can maintain its upward momentum or if global uncertainties will weigh on the index. The developments in the energy and gold sectors, along with key corporate earnings, are likely to be pivotal in determining the market’s direction as the trading week concludes.
