This week, Japan received some promising news in its ongoing struggle to address its demographic challenges. In 2024, the number of babies born to a specific segment of the population reached a record high of over 22,000. This figure represents an increase of about 3,000 from the previous year and a 50% rise compared to a decade ago. However, none of these births were to Japanese women, highlighting a significant issue in the nation’s demographic strategy.
The cries of newborns from women hailing from China, Brazil, the Philippines, and Vietnam have filled maternity wards, serving as a stark reminder of the Japanese government’s repeated failures to encourage local couples to expand their families. According to recent data, births among Japanese parents fell to 686,000, a decrease of 41,000 from 2023. This demographic shift coincides with Japan’s foreign population nearing 4 million, or 3.2% of the total 124 million population—a figure that was unimaginable just a decade ago.
Migration: A Response to Labor Shortages
The surge in migration is neither accidental nor unexpected. It has been seven years since then-Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, known for his conservative stance, acknowledged the necessity of accepting more low-skilled workers to mitigate labor shortages. Today, non-Japanese faces are increasingly common in urban and rural areas alike, with immigrants working in convenience stores, restaurants, factories, and even in agriculture and fishing.
Japan’s historical reputation as a modern-day sakoku—a nation of self-imposed isolation—has been challenged by these developments. However, the national discourse on migration remains contentious, as evidenced by the recent electoral success of Sanseito, a minor right-wing party that has pledged to prioritize “Japanese first.”
The Political Landscape and Immigration Debate
Sanseito’s rise, with 15 seats in the 248-seat upper house and three in the lower house, could be temporary. Some commentators suggest that voters may eventually return to mainstream parties. Nevertheless, the party and its leader, Sohei Kamiya, have already influenced the immigration debate. All major parties, including those on the center-left, have expressed concerns about foreign workers. The governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has vowed to reduce illegal immigration to zero and ensure better integration of guest workers.
During the LDP’s recent leadership contest, the winner, Sanae Takaichi, launched her campaign by criticizing foreign tourists, claiming without evidence that a visitor had assaulted a sacred deer in Nara, her constituency. Other politicians have echoed unsubstantiated claims that foreign migrants are taking jobs from Japanese workers and are more likely to commit crimes.
Social Tensions and Economic Realities
The immigration debate occasionally spills over into xenophobia. In Kawaguchi, near Tokyo, Kurdish residents have been targeted by hate speech and misinformation. Authorities in four regional cities recently had to clarify that a canceled friendship initiative with African countries would not lead to an influx of workers from Mozambique, Nigeria, Ghana, and Tanzania.
Meanwhile, in a ski resort in Hokkaido, locals are protesting plans to build accommodations for over 1,000 seasonal workers, many of whom are foreign, to support tourism and construction industries. Despite these tensions, there are signs that economic necessity may overshadow political rhetoric. Migration could accelerate to a point where foreigners make up more than 10% of the population in 15 years, three decades earlier than previously predicted.
Business leaders polled by the Nikkei business paper in September overwhelmingly stated that migrant workers are a crucial link in a supply chain that would otherwise be strained to breaking point.
The Path Forward
While Japan’s employers have embraced the need for migrant workers, the country’s politicians continue to grapple with the choice between economic decline and fostering a more diverse population. As Japan navigates these demographic and political challenges, the nation must balance its cultural identity with the practicalities of a globalized economy.
Looking ahead, the implications of Japan’s demographic shifts will require careful consideration and policy adjustments. The country’s ability to adapt to these changes will significantly impact its economic vitality and social cohesion in the coming decades.
