Japan’s tourism sector is bracing for a potential downturn in 2026, as a major travel provider projects a decrease in the number of international visitors for the first time in several years. Despite the anticipated drop in tourist numbers, spending by foreign tourists is expected to rise, offering a silver lining for the industry.
In recent years, Japan has seen a remarkable surge in foreign tourism. According to Japanese travel agency JTB, the country welcomed approximately 31.88 million overseas visitors in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic struck. Although the pandemic caused a significant decline, the numbers began to recover in 2023, reaching 25.07 million. By 2024, Japan set a new record with 36.87 million tourists, and projections for 2025 suggest an even higher figure of 42.6 million.
However, JTB forecasts a reversal of this trend in 2026, with foreign tourist numbers expected to fall to 41.4 million, marking a 2.8 percent decrease from the previous year. This projection is largely influenced by a travel advisory issued by the Chinese government, urging its citizens to avoid travel to Japan due to geopolitical tensions over Taiwan.
Factors Influencing the Decline
Japan’s appeal as a travel destination remains strong, with its renowned cuisine, stunning landscapes, rich traditions, and vibrant pop culture continuing to draw interest. The weak yen further enhances its attractiveness. Yet, the Chinese government’s advisory, issued in November, has introduced a significant variable into the equation. The advisory, while not an outright ban, exerts considerable social pressure, particularly on Chinese group tour operators, leading to a noticeable decline in visitors from China.
China and Hong Kong account for approximately one-third of all foreign tourists to Japan. The advisory’s impact is evident in the reduced tourist traffic at popular destinations historically favored by Chinese visitors. JTB analysts predict that the advisory’s effects will persist into 2026 unless the Chinese government rescinds it.
Economic Implications and Spending Trends
Despite the anticipated decline in visitor numbers, the Japanese tourism industry may not face severe economic hardship. The decrease in Chinese tourists is expected to be offset by increased demand from North America and Europe. Tourists from these regions tend to stay longer and spend more, which could lead to a rise in overall tourist spending.
Projected per-foreign tourist spending:
- 2025: 225,000 yen (US$1,470)
- 2026: 233,000 yen
Projected total foreign tourist spending:
- 2025: 9.58 trillion yen
- 2026: 9.64 trillion yen
These projections highlight that while the number of visitors may dip, the economic contribution of tourism could still grow, driven by higher spending per tourist.
Future Outlook and Potential Changes
The situation remains fluid, particularly given the Chinese government’s history of sudden policy shifts. Should the travel advisory be lifted unexpectedly, JTB may need to adjust its forecasts. For now, Japan’s tourism hotspots might experience a slight reprieve from the usual crowds in 2026.
As the global tourism landscape continues to evolve, Japan’s ability to adapt and attract diverse international visitors will be crucial. The country’s tourism stakeholders are likely to focus on enhancing experiences and marketing to new regions to sustain growth despite the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions.
