As citizens around the world prepared to welcome the new year, Iranians took to the streets to protest against their country’s deepening economic crisis. The unrest, driven by the continued devaluation of the Iranian currency against the US dollar and crippling inflation, is the latest in a series of economic hardships and protests. Initially, the Iranian regime acknowledged the legitimacy of the protesters’ concerns, offering cash vouchers worth only US$7 to help with the cost of living.
However, the regime has since adopted a harsher approach. According to official figures, at least 2,000 people have been killed as of today, yet protesters continue to demonstrate. Last Thursday, in a familiar move, the regime implemented internet shutdowns, cutting off Iranians from the digital world. In the six days since, alternative access methods such as smuggled Starlink terminals have proven unreliable due to satellite jamming.
As the world waits to see if US President Donald Trump will take “very strong action” if Iran executes protesters, the reality is that even without international intervention, the regime cannot afford to keep Iran’s internet offline indefinitely.
The Rationale Behind Internet Shutdowns
The Iranian regime has utilized internet shutdowns as a control mechanism since the Green Movement protests following the disputed 2009 presidential election. These shutdowns prevent citizens from communicating with the outside world and each other, hindering opposition organization and isolating individuals from witnessing violent crackdowns beyond their immediate surroundings.
Internet shutdowns have become so synonymous with political unrest that the non-governmental digital rights organization Article 19 declared in 2020 that “protests beget Internet shutdowns in Iran.”
The Economic Toll of Internet Blackouts
Despite their effectiveness in stifling dissent, internet shutdowns come at a significant economic and political cost. They not only block instant messengers and social media sites but also disrupt essential business tools like Slack, Skype, Google Meet, and Jira. These tools are crucial for the operations of ordinary businesses.
The regime’s efforts to block virtual private networks (VPNs) and secure HTTPS connections can wreak havoc on corporate payment systems, multi-factor authentication, and even corporate email. According to global internet monitor Netblocks, internet shutdowns cost the Iranian economy more than US$37 million a day. This amounts to over US$224 million in the past six days alone.
“During the 2022-23 protests following the death-in-custody of Kurdish-Iranian woman Mahsa ‘Jina’ Amini, internet shutdowns had far-reaching implications. One source claimed the volume of online payments inside Iran halved in the first two weeks of the protests alone.”
Iran’s vibrant e-commerce sector relies heavily on social media platforms like Instagram, WhatsApp, and Telegram, all of which were blocked during the 2022-23 unrest. A report later found that Instagram blocking and periodic internet disruptions in the 17 months after the protests cost the Iranian economy US$1.6 billion.
Strains on the Domestic Internet Infrastructure
The regime has been working for decades to build a domestic internet that could mitigate some of these economic damages, but so far, it has failed. Iran’s enormous technology needs have led to the emergence of a large semi-private information and communications technology (ICT) sector, including internet service providers, cell network operators, and a substantial IT sector.
Just six weeks into the 2022 protests, the cellphone operator RighTel’s chief executive wrote an open letter to the ICT minister, Issa Zarepour, complaining that the digital crackdown was crippling his business. He noted that RighTel had upheld the regime’s “security priorities and requirements” during the shutdowns and demanded compensation or threatened to withdraw from the market. These demands were echoed in letters privately written (but later leaked) by other communications providers.
“Internet shutdowns were creating a dangerous dynamic in which even those close to the regime were being alienated, generating a new class of potential protesters who could one day join those marching in the streets.”
The Unsustainable Nature of the Current Shutdown
The current internet shutdown is a risky strategy for the regime. While it succeeds in concealing the worst of its bloody crackdown, it risks further provoking the country’s already struggling economic class. In 2022-23, shutdowns were implemented in a targeted manner, mostly in certain cities or at specific times of day when protests were expected. In contrast, the current shutdown is nationwide.
Only 1% of internet connections in Iran are online today, allowing the supreme leader to continue using X to spread propaganda. This means the economic and political impacts of the current shutdown, if prolonged, could easily surpass those of 2022-23.
Given Iran’s economic woes are the driving force behind the current unrest, a sustained internet blackout could motivate more people to protest. The regime is acutely aware of this risk, as the economic strain and political alienation grow increasingly untenable.
