A recent claim by Moscow that Ukraine launched a drone strike on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region has been met with skepticism from experts. While technically feasible, such an attack would be strategically unwise, they argue. The allegation, made on Monday, has been dismissed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “another round of lies from the Russian Federation.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Kyiv had used 91 long-range drones in the alleged attack, prompting Russia to reconsider its stance on peace negotiations. However, experts consulted by ABC News have questioned the logic behind the accusation, describing it as nonsensical.
Security Measures at Putin’s Valdai Residence
The alleged target, known as the Dolgiye Borody or Valdai residence, is situated on the shores of Lake Valdai in a heavily protected area within the Valdai National Park. The property spans 40 hectares and is surrounded by water on three sides, with a fence on the fourth, making access highly restricted.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), security around the residence was heightened as of May 2024. Satellite imagery from May 6 revealed the presence of at least seven Pantsir-S1 medium-range air defense systems, designed to counter short-range cruise missiles and drones. Other unidentified military technologies have also been detected via satellite.
“Satellite imagery collected on May 6 indicates that Russian forces have concentrated at least seven Pantsir-S1 medium-range air defence systems around [the Valdai property],” the ISW reported.
Despite these defenses, experts argue that the coverage is insufficient to prevent all potential drone strikes, as Ukrainian drones could exploit gaps in the air defense network.
Strategic Implications of the Alleged Attack
Peter Dickinson, editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert, expressed doubts about the feasibility of such an attack achieving its purported goal. “There was no suggestion that there was any major damage, but the idea was that Ukraine had … essentially tried to kill Putin,” he told ABC News Radio. “But broadly speaking it doesn’t make any sense [because] he is known to concentrate air defences around his residences.”
Defense analyst Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute echoed these sentiments, noting that while Ukraine possesses the capability to launch such an attack, doing so would be strategically and politically unwise. “They’ve got the means to do so,” Dr. Davis said. “But it would be strategically and politically stupid to do so because in doing so they would scupper any goodwill they’ve built up with the Trump administration.”
Dr. Davis suggested that Russia’s public accusation might be an attempt to derail the peace process. “When you look at what Russia’s response has been to the peace process, it’s been to continue attacks on Ukraine,” he said.
Putin’s Residences and Security Concerns
Putin’s other known residence, Novo-Ogaryovo, located west of Moscow, was also reportedly targeted by drones in May. Independent Russian outlets have claimed that Ukrainian drone strikes have predominantly targeted areas near this residence and other elite neighborhoods in Moscow.
Satellite images from 2021 showed the secluded property equipped with a private helicopter landing pad, greenhouse, and church, all enclosed by a six-meter-high wall. Reports suggest that Putin’s frequent absence from these properties is due to security concerns, particularly fears of drone attacks.
In November, independent outlet RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty reported, “Fears of a drone attack, they alleged, had largely kept Mr Putin away from the property since March of last year.”
International Reactions and Ongoing Tensions
Following the alleged attack, Russian state media reported that President Putin informed US President Donald Trump, who was described as “shocked” and “outraged” by the news. However, Dr. Davis noted that many in Europe view the incident as a “false flag” operation by Russia.
Meanwhile, Russian strikes on Ukraine have been intensifying. Peter Dickinson, speaking from Kyiv, described the attacks as “almost nightly” and involving hundreds of drones. “If you live in a high-rise building, then you’ve really got to think: ‘Do I go down to the basement [or the] metro station for the night or not?'” he said, highlighting the ongoing danger and disruption faced by Ukrainian civilians.
The unfolding situation underscores the fragile state of peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine, with accusations and military actions continuing to escalate tensions in the region.
