Weather agencies and climate scientists are closely monitoring the potential formation of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean later this year, a development that could propel global temperatures to unprecedented highs by 2027. Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have indicated that some climate models are forecasting an El Niño, albeit with significant uncertainties.
The announcement comes as experts emphasize the early nature of these predictions. Signals in the spread of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific suggest an El Niño could form as early as 2026. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which involves fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the Pacific, is known to trigger extreme climate events globally.
Understanding El Niño and Its Global Impact
El Niño occurs when warmer-than-average waters accumulate in the eastern equatorial Pacific, extending to the American continent’s coast. This phenomenon typically boosts global temperatures and, in regions like Australia, is associated with drier and hotter conditions. The latest southern hemisphere outlook from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology stated, “Some models suggest the possibility of El Niño development from June,” though they cautioned that this represents a “very long lead time” for accurate predictions.
NOAA has echoed these sentiments, acknowledging “growing chances of El Niño” while highlighting the inherent uncertainty in current models. Dr. Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist at Monash University, noted, “We have a lot of warm water stored up in the western tropical Pacific. Typically when the trade winds ease, that will slosh back to the east and warm up the areas off South America.”
Expert Opinions and Current Climate Conditions
Dr. Watkins further explained that the “precursors are there” for an El Niño, but it remains too early to confirm its development. Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, an ENSO expert at the University of New South Wales, pointed out that a current La Niña, characterized by warmer waters closer to Australia, is ending, making future forecasts challenging. She estimated a 50/50 chance of an El Niño developing or ENSO remaining neutral between June and August.
The past three years have ranked among the top three warmest years on record globally. Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist with the Berkeley Earth research group, highlighted the potential impact of a mid-2023 El Niño, which could have added approximately 0.12°C to global temperatures in 2024. He predicted, “If El Niño develops later this year, it will likely peak around November-January and primarily impact 2027 global surface temperatures, rather than 2026.”
“This is why I have predicted that 2027 will likely set a new record [for global temperature] if a moderate to strong El Niño event ends up developing,” said Dr. Hausfather.
Looking Forward: Implications and Consequences
Dr. Watkins concurred, suggesting that an El Niño could significantly influence global temperatures in 2027. “I would be hesitant to bet against a hottest year on record,” he remarked. However, he cautioned that global heating, primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion, is now “so strong” that it overshadows year-to-year temperature variability.
“I don’t think we are surprised by anything anymore,” Dr. Watkins added. “You might not need a strong El Niño to get these warmer temperatures.”
As climate scientists continue to monitor developments in the Pacific, the potential for an El Niño underscores the pressing need for global climate action. The interplay between natural phenomena and human-induced climate change remains a critical area of study, with significant implications for environmental policy and global temperature trends.
