For the past decade, Indonesia, the most geostrategic country in Southeast Asia and the world’s third-largest democracy, has been courted by both Washington and Beijing. Now, China has secured a significant engagement, marking a pivotal shift in regional dynamics. This development occurs without formal treaties, which are prohibited under the Indonesian Constitution, yet signifies a deeper alignment with Beijing, bypassing a formal US disengagement.
Former Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Bob Carr, commented on the situation, stating,
“Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is delivering a savvy Javanese judgment on the slide in America’s credibility and the very idea of a unipolar world marshalled from Washington.”
This shift holds profound implications for countries like Australia, which remain closely aligned with the United States, viewing it as a distant yet reliable protector.
Prabowo’s Ambitions and Domestic Challenges
Prabowo Subianto, known for his political ambitions, seeks statesman status befitting the leader of the world’s fourth-largest nation. His administration is credited with maintaining a growing economy, with GDP rising above 5%, and preserving social harmony in a Muslim-majority, multi-faith secular democracy. However, recent domestic unrest poses significant challenges.
Last week, Indonesia was rocked by nationwide riots fueled by public anger over parliamentary bonuses, rising living costs, and cuts in government services. Reports indicate that at least 10 people have died, over 1000 have been injured, and approximately 1240 individuals have been arrested. The UN High Commission for Human Rights has called for an investigation into
“alleged violations of international human rights law.”
Political Maneuvering and International Relations
Prabowo initially canceled a trip to China due to the severity of the riots but later attended the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Beijing. His absence from Indonesia was perceived as a lack of confidence in Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming, who is seen as inexperienced and was notably absent from major political announcements.
Gibran, the son of former President Joko Widodo, faces criticism and has been tasked with addressing the independence movement in West Papua. This region, rich in resources like the Grasberg mine, remains a contentious area with a history of conflict and human rights issues.
Historical Context and Future Implications
Indonesia’s political landscape has been shaped by its tumultuous history, including the Japanese occupation during World War II and the 1965 genocide. Prabowo’s leadership style, reminiscent of authoritarian rule, raises concerns about the erosion of democratic principles. His party, Gerindra, advocates for a return to the original 1945 Constitution, which lacks guarantees for human rights and separation of powers.
As Indonesia navigates these internal and external challenges, the global community watches closely. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade emphasizes the importance of regional stability, stating,
“Australia’s security, prosperity, and economic future are linked to Southeast Asia. Our connections to the region go beyond geography, with enduring family, business, education, and tourism ties.”
Australia’s Strategic Response
Indonesia’s pivot away from the US presents Australia with opportunities to deepen engagement with its northern neighbor. This could involve enhancing people-to-people connections, offering visa-free travel for Indonesian tourists, and expanding educational exchanges. Such initiatives would complement existing security, trade, and defense collaborations.
Ultimately, Australia’s response to these geopolitical shifts will shape future relations with Indonesia and the broader Southeast Asian region. As the situation evolves, strategic decisions made today will influence the diplomatic landscape for years to come.
