Jets vs. Bills odds, spread, line, prediction, betting picks for NFL Week 1 ‘Monday Night Football’

Chapter one of an 18-week story is about to begin. The Jets and Bills each start with blank slates despite many words already being written about them since the conclusion of the Super Bowl in February. The good news is those words were written in pencil, not permanent marker. That will change on Monday night when those words begin to be finalized. What will the story of the Jets and Bills be in 2023? 

This matchup will see the highly anticipated debut of Aaron Rodgers in a Jets uniform, and it’s also the first of two heavyweight battles that will go a long way in determining the fate of not only the AFC East, but also the AFC as a whole. It’s been a long offseason for Josh Allen’s Bills, highlighted by another painful playoff exit signaling another disappointing conclusion to a once-promising campaign. That was yesterday, this is today. After all, there’s a reason why the windshield is bigger than the rearview mirror.

Energy and expectations are high, with the winner landing their first big punch in what’s sure to be a season-long battle for division supremacy. Arguably the best matchup of Week 1 kicks off under the bright lights of “Monday Night Football” in the shadows of the New York City skyline. This is what Rodgers wanted to be part of, to make a new start of it. Can he make it there? Because it’s not just anywhere. Let’s dive into the matchup and see where your money should be going to finish off Week 1.

For those looking to bet on Monday night’s AFC East battle, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Jets-Bills, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our prediction for this Week 1 matchup.

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Jets vs. Bills odds, spread, over/under

  • Spread: Bills -2.5 (-110); Jets +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under:  OVER 46.5 (-110); UNDER 46.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Bills -140; Jets +115

The oddsmakers see the Bills as a short favorite on the road in Week 1, perhaps surprising to the masses. This game feels more like a pick ’em more than anything else, but continuity seems to be the reason for the Buffalo love. While Rodgers and the Jets have captured all the hype, it remains to be seen how the team will gel early in the season. On the other side, the Bills are hoping to continue their impressive run of regular season success while returning many of the same key players on both sides of the ball. For those reasons, the line does make sense. However, New York’s roster is vastly improved from the one that went 2-0 ATS against the Bills in 2022 with one outright win.

As for the total, seven of the past eight meetings between both teams have gone under the 46.5 total set for Monday night. 

Should you bet the Jets against the spread?

The Jets flipped the script on the Bills last season after Gang Green essentially served as another bye week for the better part of a decade. They played close games in 2022, with the Jets’ defense keeping Allen and co. under control. That same defense, with a little more depth, is what Buffalo is up against on Monday night. Robert Saleh’s team ranked third in pressure rate in 2022 at 25.4 percent. But the team also had the lowest blitz rate, at 14.9 percent. It’s an indication that the team can bring the heat while not sacrificing in coverage.

On Buffalo’s side, they have consistency, but is it enough? The team took a hit with Tremaine Edmunds departing for Chicago, a player they never truly replaced. Von Miller isn’t playing on Monday night, and Stefon Diggs wants everyone to believe there is no rift despite giving plenty of reasons to point to that. New York’s front should be able to get pressure against a Buffalo offensive line that struggled in preseason and had many sounding the alarms. That, not Rodgers, is the difference in this game. Take the points. 

Our pick: Jets to cover +2.5 (-110), but you get more value on the moneyline if you think the Jets will win outright. 

Should you bet the Jets’ moneyline?

If we like the points at -110, then we love the Jets’ moneyline at +115. It’s easy to point to Rodgers and say that’s why we think that way, but let’s take a look at Allen’s stats against the Jets. Allen has played them nine times, owning an 8-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a quarterback rating of 81.3, his lowest against any team in the AFC East. If we look at only the 2022 season, Allen completed just 55.7 percent of passes with one touchdown and two interceptions, totaling a quarterback rating of 64.4.

Early in the season, we’ll look to rely on the better defense to get the job done. The Jets have that. They have tried to become to newest villains of the NFL. The streets have made Rodgers feel brand new. It’s a home game on an emotional night in the tri-state area under the lights. MetLife Stadium should have a playoff-like atmosphere for the first time in a long time. The Jets have essentially said, without actually saying it, that they will win this game and do so convincingly. Quite frankly, they have to, and the pieces are in place to do just that. Trust the Jets to get it done in Week 1, 23-16. 

Our pick: Jets to win outright (+115)

Should you bet the Jets vs. Bills over or under?

We’ve spent most of this analysis gushing about the defensive side of the ball, and all of that is a recipe for another UNDER in the Meadowlands. In relation to this number, the under has been the trend in this matchup, and a couple of offenses trying to find their footing should be more than enough to get the job done. Both teams will likely try to establish the run in some way, heightening the importance of every drive. The Jets have a three-headed monster in the backfield after adding Dalvin Cook, while the Bills are led by his brother, James Cook, along with offseason acquisition, Damien Harris. Four of the past five have gone UNDER in this series. They’ll make it five of six on Monday night. 

Our pick: UNDER 46.5 (-110)

Best Jets vs. Bills prop bet via SuperDraft

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Josh Allen OVER 35.5 rushing yards

Allen will have to use his legs to keep New York’s defense off-balance. For No. 17, it’s a good thing that is one of his strengths. Across his career versus the division rival, he’s averaging 50.7 rushing yards on 7.8 attempts per game. Allen has also added six rushing touchdowns in nine games, showing he is a threat everywhere between the white lines. With nine and 10 carries across the two games last season, he should be able to go OVER this number with ease. 

Looking for more Jets-Bills player prop picks? Check out our favorite SuperDraft player props for Sunday night’s matchup.

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