As the year draws to a close, political analysts and commentators are busy dissecting the past year’s events and setting the stage for the year ahead. In Australia, this annual ritual is often marked by a media landscape eager to align with government narratives, frequently at the expense of addressing the real issues faced by ordinary Australians.
The recent commentary by John Black, a former Labor senator and seasoned demographic researcher, exemplifies this trend. Black’s analysis urges Australians to shift their focus away from their lived experiences and view politicians as mere performers rather than policymakers. His insights, however, touch upon a deeper issue that is set to dominate the political discourse in 2026: the growing divide between the wealthy and the less affluent.
Economic Disparities and Political Instability
Black’s commentary highlights a critical source of instability in the coming year: the increasing wealth gap. In a nation where citizens are among the most indebted globally, reliant on a commodity sector facing a potential downturn, and burdened by soaring house prices and energy costs, this divide is becoming more pronounced.
Amidst these economic challenges, the Australian public is also grappling with the implications of a tragic event that unfolded on December 14 at Bondi Beach. The attack, which claimed 15 lives during a Jewish Hanukkah celebration, has ignited a national debate on racism and religious intolerance. The incident, allegedly carried out by gunmen linked to Islamic State, has prompted calls for a comprehensive response from both state and federal governments.
Political Responses and Public Perception
New South Wales Premier Chris Minns has responded with a promise of a state royal commission to investigate the attack and prevent future incidents. In contrast, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s response has been criticized as inadequate, with no commitment to a national inquiry despite subsequent violent incidents.
“Almost three out of four Australians feel that racism and religious intolerance have increased since the conflict in Gaza began in October 2023.”
Public sentiment reflects this dissatisfaction, with a Resolve Poll indicating that half of all voters, including a significant portion of Labor supporters, view the government’s response as weak. This perception has contributed to a decline in support for the Labor Party, with the Coalition and One Nation gaining ground.
The Broader Economic Context
Beyond the immediate political fallout, Black’s analysis touches on broader economic issues that are shaping the political landscape. Federal spending has surged, reaching 27% of GDP, the highest since the 1980s, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic response. This increase in spending, coupled with a growing public service, raises questions about the government’s fiscal management.
The demographic shifts within political parties further complicate the picture. The Labor Party’s traditional working-class base has eroded, with wealthier, professional women increasingly aligning with the party. This shift has implications for policy priorities and electoral strategies.
Immigration and Economic Policy
Australia’s reliance on immigration to sustain population growth and economic stability is another contentious issue. Falling fertility rates and an aging population have driven the government to increase net overseas migration. However, this approach has sparked debate about its long-term sustainability and impact on public finances.
“People have ceased having children because of the contraceptive effects of debt.”
Critics argue that the high cost of living, particularly housing, deters young couples from starting families. The average mortgage now exceeds $600,000, placing significant financial strain on households. This economic reality, combined with a job market dominated by government-funded positions, underscores the challenges facing Australians.
Looking Ahead: Political and Economic Implications
As Australia navigates these complex issues, the political landscape is likely to remain volatile. The divide between the wealthy and the less affluent, coupled with dissatisfaction over immigration and economic policy, will continue to shape voter behavior.
The upcoming federal election, although still years away, will serve as a critical test for political parties. The Labor Party must address the concerns of its traditional base, while the Coalition seeks to regain support among wealthier voters. Meanwhile, minor parties like One Nation are poised to capitalize on voter discontent.
Ultimately, the path forward requires addressing the root causes of economic inequality and political instability. This includes re-evaluating immigration policies, managing government spending, and ensuring that economic growth benefits all Australians. As the nation grapples with these challenges, the coming years will be pivotal in determining its political and economic trajectory.
