20 January, 2026
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Australia is bracing for a diverse range of weather conditions this Christmas Day, with Melbourne expecting cool and windy weather, Sydney anticipating rain, and Perth preparing for extreme heat. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecasted rain that could reduce bushfire risks in most capital cities, although parts of the nation remain on heatwave alert.

Melbourne may experience its fourth coldest Christmas since records began in 1855, with temperatures expected to stay below 17°C and possible showers adding to the chill. Meanwhile, Western Australia faces heatwave conditions, particularly in the southwest, posing extreme fire danger, according to Andrew Gissing, Chief Executive of Natural Hazards Research Australia.

Weather Extremes Across Australia

The weather forecast for Christmas Day highlights the stark contrast across the country. Canberra and Adelaide are set to enjoy a fine and mild day with temperatures of 27°C and 25°C, respectively. In contrast, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Hobart are likely to see showers. Darwin could experience a tropical downpour with up to 50mm of rain.

Perth is expected to endure a scorching 41°C, before cooling to a milder 27°C on Boxing Day. Hobart will have the coolest temperatures among the capital cities, with a high of just 15°C, while Darwin is forecast to reach 31°C.

Impact of Weather on Bushfire Risks

The forecasted rain in eastern states is a welcome relief, potentially dampening bushfire risks. However, the situation is different in Western Australia, where the combination of extreme heat, strong winds, and low humidity heightens fire danger.

“WA folks are facing extreme heat … the strength of the winds and the relatively low humidity is taken into account when calculating those fire danger ratings,” said Andrew Gissing.

Gissing also noted that Western Australia has been experiencing a longer-term drying trend, exacerbating the risk of bushfires and associated health hazards from smoke.

Australia’s Active Bushfire Season

This year’s bushfire season has been notably active, with significant impacts across several states. In New South Wales, approximately 16 homes were recently lost to fires, while a similar number of homes were destroyed at Dolphin Sands in Tasmania. Western Australia has also seen property losses, and tragically, firefighters have lost their lives in the line of duty.

Beyond bushfires, heavy rainfall across northern Australia could lead to potential flooding. Additionally, a category-two cyclone in the Indian Ocean is expected to impact the Cocos Islands on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

“Other than bushfires, you’ve also got widespread heavy rainfall across northern Australia, which will lead to potential flooding,” Gissing added.

Looking Ahead: Weather and Safety Precautions

As Australians prepare to celebrate Christmas, the varied weather conditions serve as a reminder of the country’s diverse climate challenges. Residents in affected areas are advised to stay informed about weather updates and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety.

With the ongoing threat of bushfires and potential flooding, authorities emphasize the importance of preparedness and vigilance. The Bureau of Meteorology and emergency services continue to monitor the situation closely, providing guidance and support to communities across the nation.

As the festive season unfolds, Australians are encouraged to enjoy the holiday while remaining mindful of the weather’s impact on their plans and safety.