Opposition Leader Sussan Ley is facing a significant setback as recent polling data reveals a sharp decline in support for the Liberals and Nationals, while One Nation gains momentum. The Australian Financial Review’s Redbridge/Accent Research poll, released just as parliamentarians gather in Canberra, shows the combined vote for the now-divided Liberals and Nationals plummeting to 19%, a decrease of seven points since December.
Meanwhile, One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, has surged ahead, capturing 26% of the vote—a nine-point increase. Hanson’s net favorability has also improved dramatically, now standing at minus 3, compared to Ley’s worsening score of minus 32. Ley’s support as the preferred prime minister has dropped to 9%, while current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese holds 37%, despite a slight decrease.
Political Dynamics and Leadership Challenges
The poll results come amid internal tensions within the opposition, as defense spokesman Angus Taylor positions himself for a potential leadership challenge against Ley. With Andrew Hastie stepping aside, Taylor emerges as the sole conservative candidate, although he must still consolidate his support base.
In an effort to win over Hastie’s supporters, Taylor has taken to social media, praising Hastie as “a patriot committed to tackling the big problems our country faces” and aligning himself with many of Hastie’s views. Despite these maneuvers, party insiders suggest that an immediate leadership challenge is unlikely, though a move could occur as early as next week.
Responses from Key Political Figures
Shadow Health Minister Anne Ruston, a staunch supporter of Ley, downplayed the likelihood of a leadership challenge, emphasizing economic concerns instead. “I don’t expect a challenge to the leadership at all,” Ruston stated on a Sunday TV appearance. “The most important thing this week is sadly we are expecting another rate rise from the RBA and the impact that’s going to have on Australians.”
Shadow Treasurer Ted O’Brien echoed a similar sentiment, noting that “if someone did not support the leader, they step aside. Angus hasn’t done that. So my running assumption is he continues to support Sussan Ley in her leadership.” O’Brien added, “I don’t believe we’re walking into a period where there will be [a challenge]. But I don’t know the future either.”
Coalition Instability and Future Prospects
The poll was conducted between the day of the Coalition split and the subsequent meeting of right-wing figures discussing potential leadership candidates. As the Nationals leader David Littleproud prepares to counter a spill motion by backbencher Colin Boyce, the broader implications of the Coalition’s fragmentation become evident.
According to sources, Ley and Littleproud are expected to meet this week to discuss the possibility of reuniting the Coalition. However, given the current instability and divergent interests within the parties, significant progress appears unlikely.
Implications for Australian Politics
The political landscape in Australia is shifting, with One Nation capitalizing on the disarray within the opposition. The rise of Hanson’s party reflects broader voter dissatisfaction and could signal a realignment in voter preferences. As the opposition grapples with internal challenges, the government’s ability to maintain its lead will be tested in the coming months.
Looking ahead, the focus will be on whether Taylor can solidify his position and if the Liberals and Nationals can overcome their divisions. The outcome of these internal struggles will likely shape the opposition’s strategy and influence the broader political discourse in Australia.
