The outgoing director-general of Australia’s Office of National Intelligence (ONI), Andrew Shearer, has accused China of employing intimidation tactics against Australia. This accusation follows the deployment of a Chinese naval flotilla that is reportedly circumnavigating the continent. As Shearer prepares to leave his post after five years, he has issued a stark warning about the increasing risk of major conflict in the Indo-Pacific region within the next decade.
On Monday, Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed that the Australian government is closely monitoring a Chinese navy task group currently in the Philippine Sea. However, it remains unclear whether this group intends to approach Australia, echoing a similar expedition by the People’s Liberation Army in February.
Rising Tensions in the Indo-Pacific
During Senate estimates hearings, Shearer described the Indo-Pacific as the “epicentre of global systemic rivalry,” highlighting Beijing’s growing assertiveness. He expressed concern over the weakening of the “guardrails” that have historically prevented competition from escalating into confrontation and conflict.
“Crises are overlapping and intersecting, bringing threats on shore faster, sometimes in real time. Warning times are shorter, meaning we have to act now if we are to be prepared for what may be coming,” Shearer stated.
Shearer emphasized that should deterrence fail, Australia and its allies could face a significant risk of conflict in the region within the next decade. He pointed to the February circumnavigation of Australia by the Chinese navy, which included live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, as a potential intimidatory tactic.
Preparing for Future Challenges
Shearer advised that Australia should brace for more frequent visits by the Chinese military, suggesting these actions demonstrate China’s ability to project and sustain naval power far from its mainland. He also noted Japan’s recent experiences with economic coercion and military pressure from China, particularly following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about Taiwan.
The intelligence chief detailed the challenges faced by Australia’s intelligence community, including “incessant cyberattacks, unrelenting espionage, and interference efforts.” He warned of the growing collaboration between malign states and non-state actors aiming to disrupt and influence the region.
“The struggle for influence and strategic advantage in our region has intensified on every front,” Shearer said. “In the Pacific, efforts to build influence over elites have become more overt and sustained.”
Leadership Transition and Political Reactions
As Shearer exits his role, he will be succeeded by Kathy Klugman, who has served as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s top foreign affairs adviser. Klugman’s appointment has drawn criticism from the opposition, which argues that the government failed to consult adequately and questioned Klugman’s experience in intelligence.
During the estimates hearings, officials from the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet disclosed that an independent panel had shortlisted five candidates for the ONI role, from which Albanese selected Klugman.
The transition in leadership comes at a critical time for Australia’s national security landscape, as the government navigates complex geopolitical challenges in the region. The implications of these developments will likely shape Australia’s defense and foreign policy strategies in the coming years.
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