A former senior Pentagon official has called on Australia to provide the United States with more “concrete” commitments regarding the deployment of Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines in the event of a conflict. This request coincides with Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles’ arrival in Washington DC for high-level discussions with the Trump Administration.
Abraham Denmark, who served as a senior AUKUS advisor to former US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, has co-authored a new report on the defense technology pact with Charles Edel, the Australia Chair for the US think tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The report emphasizes that AUKUS is a “strategic imperative” for the US, Australia, and the United Kingdom, describing it as being at a “critical juncture” and urging the three nations to intensify their efforts to ensure its success.
The CSIS report supports the Trump administration’s review of the defense pact but warns against abandoning AUKUS, arguing that doing so would weaken the US’s capabilities in the region. It cautions that such a move would undermine the US’s defense posture, diplomatic presence, and international credibility, while bolstering propaganda from Beijing and Moscow about the unreliability of American commitments.
Challenges in Submarine Supply and Sovereignty Concerns
The supply of Virginia-class submarines has been a contentious issue between Australia and the US. The Albanese government has expressed unease over some Trump administration officials linking AUKUS to defense funding and has resisted US demands for pre-commitment of these submarines to any American military efforts in the region.
The CSIS report suggests a balanced approach to this “sensitive” issue, advocating for robust and detailed “contingency planning” between the two countries. This planning would involve joint strategizing and organizing of military operations to provide the US with reassurances that submarines sold to Australia would be available when needed, while preserving Australian sovereignty in the planning and potential implementation during a crisis.
“Planning, in which military strategists from the United States and Australia would jointly undergo a comprehensive process of strategising and organising military operations to achieve specific objectives, would provide US officials with more concrete reassurances that submarines sold to Australia would not disappear if and when needed,” the report states.
High-Level Meetings and Strategic Discussions
The report’s release coincides with Richard Marles’ scheduled meetings with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and other senior administration officials in Washington DC. According to sources, Marles may also meet with US Vice President JD Vance, although this is not confirmed.
In a statement, Marles emphasized the enduring trust underpinning the US-Australia alliance. “I was pleased to speak with Secretary Hegseth at the Shangri La Dialogue in May, and welcome the opportunity in Washington to build on our valuable discussions of shared defence and security matters,” he stated. “Given the shared challenges we face in our region, I look forward to reaffirming our commitment to the Alliance and advancing our strong partnership.”
Strategic Importance of HMAS Stirling
As the US continues to expand its military presence in Australia, with a focus on countering Beijing, the CSIS report highlights the strategic value of AUKUS in enhancing Washington DC’s submarine operations and maintenance capabilities at HMAS Stirling naval base in Perth.
“Most importantly for deterrence, a rotational presence from HMAS Stirling will quickly provide the United States access to an operational base for its (nuclear powered submarines) in a critical location: west of the international dateline, astride the Indian Ocean, and close to the South China Sea,” the report states.
The report also notes that while the Australian government has emphasized its capacity to assist in maintaining American nuclear-powered submarines at HMAS Stirling, significant investment in the base as a major maintenance facility is unlikely without a clear commitment from the US to sell three-to-five Virginia-class submarines to Australia under the AUKUS “optimal pathway.”
“That construction could be significantly accelerated, but U.S. planners need to note that HMAS Stirling is unlikely to materialise as a maintenance hub for American SSNs unless and until Canberra receives a clear signal from Washington that it plans on selling submarines to them,” the report warns.
Recommendations for Strengthening AUKUS
Edel and Denmark also highlight the need for more focused efforts in developing advanced military technologies under AUKUS’s second pillar. They suggest concentrating on three key capability areas: autonomy, long-range strike, and integrated air defense. The report further recommends creating a streamlined visa process to facilitate the movement of researchers and industry professionals between the three countries for collaborative projects.
Additionally, the report advocates for the appointment of a special representative for AUKUS in both the US and Australia, responsible for driving efforts and ensuring the pact’s success, reporting directly to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Donald Trump.
As the AUKUS agreement, initially unveiled by former leaders Scott Morrison, Boris Johnson, and Joe Biden in 2021, continues to evolve, the focus remains on strengthening alliances and enhancing regional security in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
