Australia is projected to narrowly miss its 2030 climate target and significantly fall short of its 2035 goal unless substantial changes are implemented. This revelation was made by Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen during his annual climate statement to parliament.
Minister Bowen emphasized that it is common to see a gap between projected emissions and targets set a decade into the future. He stated, “As new policies are developed and implemented, the emissions outlook improves. That’s what a target is for — to drive new initiatives and work.”
The Environment Department has reported that Australia is on track to achieve a 42 percent reduction in emissions by the end of this decade, falling just 1 percent short of the legislated target. However, the department warns that the nation is significantly behind in meeting the government’s recent commitment to cut emissions by 62 to 70 percent by 2035, with current projections indicating a reduction of only 48 percent.
Current Progress and Challenges
Despite falling short of its headline 2030 goal, Australia is expected to meet its international obligations for this decade by staying within the cumulative carbon emissions budget set under the Paris Agreement. In the House of Representatives, Minister Bowen highlighted the government’s progress, noting a 2.2 percent reduction in emissions over the past year.
Since 2005, Australia has reduced emissions by 28.5 percent, according to the latest figures. Minister Bowen expressed optimism that even greater reductions could be achieved, but acknowledged the current projections indicate the government will miss its climate commitments.
“While the 2035 target is ambitious and achievable, it is not yet being achieved,” Mr Bowen said. “We cannot pretend climate change isn’t real. We cannot ignore it. And we can’t give up and say it’s all too hard.”
The minister also pointed out that the department’s assessment did not account for recent commitments announced alongside the 2035 target, nor several existing policies, including support for Australia’s green metals industry.
Policy Adjustments and Future Outlook
Minister Bowen suggested that improvements could arise from future policy changes, particularly from a scheduled review of the Safeguard Mechanism, which mandates the nation’s largest polluters to reduce emissions by 5 percent annually or face penalties. Additionally, the Climate Change Authority’s recommendation to expedite renewables approvals is likely to be realized following a new agreement with the Greens to revise Australia’s environment laws.
However, Greens leader Larissa Waters criticized the government’s efforts, stating that they remain “nowhere near” their climate goals. She remarked, “48 percent is a country mile away from the 62 percent emissions reduction that Labor promised. These are diabolical pollution numbers that suggest we are on track for cataclysmic climate change.”
Political Reactions and Future Implications
This development comes shortly after the Coalition abandoned its net zero emissions target by 2050, arguing that the goal has been increasing power prices. The Coalition has been vocally critical of the government’s climate targets, questioning their feasibility.
Minister Bowen reaffirmed Labor’s commitment to tackling climate change, stating, “We know that the 2035 target reflects Australia’s highest possible ambition because on this side of the house, we back our nation’s ability to rise to challenges. The target is grounded in science and is a credible contribution to global efforts to keep warming well below 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees within reach, supporting a safer environment for future generations.”
The requirement for an annual climate update was legislated following an agreement with independent senator David Pocock and the Greens when the government enshrined its 2030 target into law last term. As Australia navigates these challenges, the focus will remain on policy innovation and international cooperation to meet its ambitious climate goals.
