The preliminary finals are upon us, with only four teams remaining in the hunt for the coveted AFL premiership. As the excitement builds, Fox Footy’s David King and Leigh Montagna have analyzed the upcoming matches at the MCG, focusing on where the games will be won or lost and highlighting the players who could determine the outcomes.
From Collingwood’s “outrageous” defensive strategies to Geelong’s secret weapon against a formidable Hawthorn team, here’s an in-depth breakdown of the preliminary finals.
Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks: The Tactical Battle
Geelong has had the upper hand over Hawthorn in recent years, with the Hawks failing to defeat the Cats since 2022. However, the introduction of Tom Barrass to Hawthorn’s lineup presents a new challenge. His defensive skills could be pivotal, especially given Hawthorn’s recent struggles, conceding triple figures in three of their last four encounters with Geelong.
Hawthorn’s strategy relies heavily on turnover ball, with their forwards capitalizing on these opportunities. Leigh Montagna emphasized the importance of turnover differential, stating, “You need to be top three turnover differential to win flags.” In the 2025 finals series, Hawthorn has excelled, leading the AFL with an average of 65.5 points from turnovers.
“This is Hawthorn’s model. When they have won the turnover battle, they are 16-zip,” Montagna praised, noting that Hawthorn is 1-8 when losing the turnover count.
Tom Barrass’s role will be crucial, especially in countering Geelong’s offensive threats. David King noted Barrass’s vulnerability when drawn up the ground, suggesting that Geelong might exploit this by pulling him out of position.
“He fascinates me this guy,” King said. “When he’s up the ground – and this is the biggest threat in the game for me – I’d be taking him to wing as often as I could if I’m (Cats forward) Shannon Neale.”
Player to Watch: Patrick Dangerfield
Patrick Dangerfield is expected to have a significant impact on Friday night’s match. His past performances in finals have been stellar, with a notable presence in both the 2022 and 2024 AFL finals series. David King highlighted Dangerfield’s ability to change the course of a game, particularly in high-stakes moments.
“This is the ace. (Scott is) going bang! If you can beat my trump card here in the biggest games in September, good luck to ya! But he’s in there.”
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Defensive Mastery vs Offensive Flair
Collingwood’s defense, strengthened by the return of Jeremy Howe, poses a significant challenge for the Brisbane Lions. Despite Howe’s recent injuries, his presence in the backline is integral to Collingwood’s defensive setup. David King explained the Magpies’ strategic focus on patience and defensive solidity.
“Good luck moving the ball full length of the ground against the Pies. If they can force a straight line, slow game, you won’t score against Collingwood.”
However, the Brisbane Lions are known for their bold, attacking play. Leigh Montagna noted their willingness to take risks, particularly through the corridor, which could disrupt Collingwood’s defensive plans.
“They will still force it – even if you do clog up the numbers,” Montagna explained.
Player to Watch: Nick Daicos
Nick Daicos is a key player for the Magpies, especially against Brisbane. His recent performances against the Lions have been exceptional, with significant contributions to disposals, score involvements, and goals. Leigh Montagna highlighted Daicos’s influence on Collingwood’s offense.
“He feasts out on the Brisbane Lions,” Montagna said. “So much of their offence and X-factor comes through this man.”
Looking Ahead: The Road to the Grand Final
As the preliminary finals approach, the strategies and performances of key players will be crucial in determining which teams advance to the grand final. Both matches promise to deliver high-intensity football, with each team bringing unique strengths to the field. Fans can expect thrilling contests as these AFL powerhouses vie for a spot in the season’s ultimate showdown.
The stage is set for a captivating weekend of football, with the potential for unexpected twists and standout performances. As the teams prepare for battle, the anticipation continues to build among supporters eagerly awaiting the outcome of these decisive encounters.
