For many, the idea of success or failure in sport is simple: win it all, or the season is wasted. However, the reality is more nuanced. Various factors contribute to the expectations surrounding an AFL club, including team composition, recent trades, and past performance. With these considerations, we analyze each AFL club’s early pass mark for the 2026 season.
Adelaide Crows: Aiming for Preliminary Finals
The Adelaide Crows were the biggest risers of the 2025 home-and-away season, only to face disappointment in the finals. After an eight-year absence, their return to finals ended abruptly with consecutive losses. This places them in a precarious position. They have demonstrated potential but must bridge the gap to become genuine premiership contenders. For 2026, reaching a preliminary final would signify progress. Anything less, and they face a tougher path, needing multiple September wins to re-enter the final four for the first time since 2017. Finals success is crucial as they integrate promising young talent and welcome Callum Ah Chee, a two-time Brisbane premiership hero.
Brisbane Lions: Grand Final Aspirations
The Brisbane Lions are poised for a potential third consecutive premiership. With a star-studded list and emerging talents, the team has only strengthened during the off-season. Key additions include Sam Draper as ruckman, Oscar Allen as a forward spearhead, and top draftee Dan Annable. The Lions’ organic improvement, led by players like Jaspa Fletcher and the Ashcroft brothers, suggests they are ready to reach new heights under Chris Fagan. With eight straight finals appearances, Brisbane is expected to compete on the last Saturday in September once more in 2026.
Carlton: Wildcard Weekend Contenders
Carlton faces significant challenges heading into 2026, having lost key players such as Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, and Charlie Curnow. Despite these losses, their list depth has improved with the arrivals of Ben Ainsworth, Campbell Chesser, and others. The Blues’ on-ball brigade, led by top draftee Jagga Smith, offers hope for the future. With enough talent to push for a spot in the inaugural wildcard weekend, a strong response after a disappointing 2025 is essential for Michael Voss and his team.
Collingwood: Grand Final or Bust
Collingwood’s age profile remains a talking point, but their wealth of September experience positions them for another strong season. The departure of Brody Mihocek is a setback, but the addition of Jack Buller is promising. The club’s list turnover is accelerating, yet expectations remain high. To justify their current strategy, reaching the grand final is essential.
Essendon: Aiming for Double-Digit Wins
Essendon enters the 2026 season with renewed hope under Brad Scott, despite a challenging 2025 due to injuries. The Bombers’ pass mark of 10 wins may not qualify them for the wildcard rounds but indicates an upward trend. At full strength, their best 23 is formidable, bolstered by three first-round picks. Achieving double-digit wins would be a satisfying outcome.
Fremantle: Preliminary Final Ambitions
Fremantle is ready to compete in the short term, with strategic additions like Mason Cox and Judd McVee enhancing their core. The Dockers’ midfield, featuring Caleb Serong and Andy Brayshaw, remains a threat. After a successful 2025, the next step is a finals win, ideally in a qualifying final. However, coach Justin Longmuir’s game style will be closely scrutinized.
Geelong Cats: Back to the Grand Final
Geelong’s 2025 grand final loss was disappointing, but the season was largely successful. The Cats have strengthened their midfield with James Worpel and expect progression from young talents like Shannon Neale. Despite nearing retirement, veterans Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron remain key. The expectation is to return to the grand final in 2026.
Gold Coast Suns: Building on Success
The Suns broke their finals drought and defeated Fremantle in an elimination final, signaling their emergence as contenders. With trades for stars Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, the Suns aim for a top-four finish and a flag tilt. Under Damien Hardwick, they are poised for further success.
GWS Giants: Seeking Finals Redemption
The Giants have been perennial contenders under Adam Kingsley but have struggled in finals. Their straight-sets exit last year and elimination final loss to Hawthorn highlight the need for improvement. The 2026 season will determine their long-term flag prospects.
Hawthorn: Repeating Success
Hawthorn’s 2024 emergence set high expectations, and they delivered by reaching a preliminary final. Although they narrowly missed the grand final, the Hawks aim to repeat or exceed this success. Despite losing James Worpel, the team remains optimistic under coach Sam Mitchell.
Melbourne: Targeting Improvement
Melbourne’s off-season changes, including a new coach and player departures, have set the stage for improvement. With Max Gawn and Kysaiah Pickett leading the way, the Demons aim for double-digit wins and a wildcard berth. New additions like Jack Steele and top draftees Xavier Taylor and Latrelle Pickett bolster their prospects.
North Melbourne: Avoiding the Bottom
North Melbourne cannot afford another bottom-four finish under Alastair Clarkson. With promising young players and strategic additions, the Roos aim to increase their win tally. Progress from Harry Sheezel and others will be crucial to their success in 2026.
Port Adelaide: Wildcard Weekend Goals
The Josh Carr era begins with expectations of a return to finals. With a talented young list and a favorable draw, Port Adelaide aims for a wildcard weekend appearance. Depth remains a concern, but if key players stay healthy, the Power could push further.
Richmond: Building on Progress
Richmond exceeded expectations in Adem Yze’s second season, and now aims to build on that success. With promising youngsters and key veterans, the Tigers target eight wins in 2026. The departure of Tylar Young is manageable, and further development is expected from players like Josh Smillie.
St Kilda: Aiming for Finals
St Kilda has strengthened its list with key additions and aims for a top-eight finish. After regressing under Ross Lyon, the Saints seek an uptick in wins. A wildcard berth is insufficient; the club targets a top-eight ladder finish.
Sydney Swans: Top Four Ambitions
Despite missing finals in 2025, the Swans aim for a top-four finish in 2026. With the addition of Charlie Curnow, expectations are high for a return to September action. Under Dean Cox, the Swans are poised to challenge for a premiership once more.
West Coast Eagles: Rebuilding for Wins
After a historically bad season, West Coast aims for improvement in 2026. With mature-age additions and top draftees, the Eagles expect more wins. Under Andrew McQualter, the young list seeks progress despite being the least experienced in the competition.
Western Bulldogs: Finals Success
The Bulldogs missed finals despite a strong 2025, but their list is too talented to miss out again. With a potent attack and a secure coach, they aim to win a final in 2026. Expectations are high for Luke Beveridge and his team to make a significant impact.
