Since the final siren sounded on the 2025 AFL season, the landscape of Australian Rules Football has undergone significant changes. The 2026 season promises to be different, with expanded finals for the first time since 1994, star players switching clubs, and new coaches taking the helm. However, one constant remains: the Brisbane Lions, reigning premiers, are the team to beat as they chase a third consecutive premiership.
The Lions’ dominance in recent years has been built on a formidable game plan that combines a solid defensive base with a controlled attacking style. They were the only team to average over 100 short kicks per match last season, and their ability to move the ball with precision remains unmatched. Yet, changes to the “stand” rule could challenge their strategy, potentially leveling the playing field for other teams.
Chasing the Lions
Despite their prowess, the Lions are not invincible. Last season, they finished third after the home-and-away rounds and suffered a significant defeat to Geelong in the first week of finals. Their preliminary final against Collingwood also exposed vulnerabilities, although they ultimately prevailed. As the 2026 season unfolds, several teams are poised to challenge Brisbane’s supremacy.
The league appears divided, with a clear distinction between the top contenders and the rest. However, this perceived gap may not be as wide as it seems. Factors such as player availability, injuries, and fixture inequalities played a significant role in shaping last year’s ladder. Brisbane benefited from being the healthiest team, while Essendon struggled with injuries, impacting their performance.
Separation at the Top?
While the ladder suggested a split between nine contenders and nine also-rans, deeper analysis reveals a more complex picture. Injuries, goal-kicking accuracy, and close match outcomes significantly influenced last year’s standings. Teams like Carlton, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and Sydney were forced to adapt due to unexpected player absences, highlighting the importance of depth and adaptability in the AFL.
Historical data suggests that while certain players are more injury-prone, the overall health of teams tends to fluctuate annually. This variability makes it challenging to predict which teams will rise or fall based on injuries alone. However, other factors, such as fixture difficulty and performance in close matches, provide clearer insights into potential shifts in the league hierarchy.
Skill or Luck?
Analyzing these factors, Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide, and the Western Bulldogs emerge as potential challengers to the Lions. The Bulldogs, in particular, showed promise last season but were hindered by injuries and bad luck. If they remain fit, they could break into the top four in 2026. Similarly, Melbourne’s performance in close matches is expected to improve, potentially altering their fortunes.
“The Demons lost six matches by single-digit margins last year, a statistic that typically normalizes over time,” notes an AFL analyst.
Meanwhile, teams like the Giants and Crows may face challenges if their opponents’ goal-kicking luck evens out. Set shots, largely beyond defensive control, could impact their performance if historical trends hold true.
Off-field Gains and New Leadership
The off-season saw significant player movements, with stars like Christian Petracca and Charlie Curnow changing clubs. St Kilda, under Ross Lyon’s leadership, has bolstered its ranks with key acquisitions, aiming to rejuvenate their performance. Other clubs, such as Sydney and Gold Coast, have also made strategic moves to strengthen their squads.
New coaching appointments at Port Adelaide and Melbourne add another layer of intrigue. Josh Carr’s promotion at Port Adelaide suggests continuity, while Steven King’s arrival at Melbourne signals a potential tactical overhaul. The Demons’ new approach could mitigate the loss of key players and lead to unexpected success.
The Tanking Shadow and Expanded Finals
As the season approaches, the specter of strategic player management looms. While overt tanking has diminished, teams out of finals contention may still prioritize future development over immediate results. This year’s draft, the last before the Devils join the league, offers a strong class of prospects, increasing the temptation to focus on long-term gains.
The introduction of an expanded finals series, with 10 teams qualifying, aims to keep more clubs in the hunt for postseason action. This change could enhance the competitiveness of the league, although it may also dilute the exclusivity of finals participation. As the season progresses, the race for finals spots will likely intensify, adding excitement for fans and stakeholders alike.
With the 2026 AFL season set to kick off, the stage is set for a thrilling year of football. As teams vie for supremacy, the Brisbane Lions remain the benchmark, but the path to the premiership is fraught with challenges and opportunities for all contenders.
