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In a surprising move, US President Donald Trump has reduced his initial 50-day ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine to just ten days. This shift underscores Trump’s growing frustration with Putin, whom he now perceives as a significant barrier to peace in the region. Meanwhile, progress remains elusive in another of Trump’s major foreign policy initiatives: ending the war in Gaza. As the humanitarian crisis deepens, Trump and some of his supporters are beginning to challenge Israel’s assertions, highlighting the dire conditions faced by many Gazans after nearly two years of conflict.
Despite Trump’s efforts, neither situation has seen a resolution. However, not all of Trump’s peacemaking attempts have been in vain. The administration successfully brokered a ceasefire between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), signed in Washington on June 27. Trump also claims credit for facilitating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May, following intense clashes in Kashmir. Additionally, he has urged leaders in Cambodia and Thailand to negotiate peace, resulting in a temporary cessation of hostilities.
Mixed Success in Peacemaking Efforts
Trump’s record in resolving international conflicts is mixed, with several factors influencing the outcomes. One key element is the leverage Trump holds and his willingness to use it to influence foreign leaders. For instance, Trump made it clear that trade negotiations with Thailand and Cambodia would not proceed until fighting ceased. This approach contrasts with his dealings in Ukraine, where leverage has been applied primarily to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, leading to a short-lived ceasefire.
However, Trump’s threats of sanctions against Russia have failed to sway Putin. The Kremlin’s dismissive response to Trump’s latest ultimatum suggests little change in its stance. The complexity of US interests in these regions further complicates Trump’s efforts. In the case of Russia and Israel, significant stakes are involved, including potential grand bargains with global powers and delicate alliances in the Middle East.
“The mere threat of sanctions against Russia, by contrast, has done little to persuade Putin to accept whatever deal might Trump offer him.”
Complex Conflicts and Simplified Solutions
In some instances, Trump’s successes have stemmed from simpler geopolitical landscapes. The ceasefire between Rwanda and the DRC, for example, was facilitated by straightforward negotiations over mineral access, a priority for US investors. Similarly, the conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia and India and Pakistan were resolved by returning to pre-conflict conditions, which, while not addressing underlying issues, restored a semblance of stability.
However, achieving stability in Ukraine and the Middle East is far more complex. These conflicts require sustained engagement and intricate negotiation processes, which are currently lacking. The absence of a well-designed diplomatic strategy in Ukraine and Gaza has hindered progress. Furthermore, resource constraints within the US State Department have left Secretary of State Marco Rubio juggling multiple roles, relying on envoys with limited expertise, and placing decision-making in Trump’s hands.
“Getting to any kind of stability in Ukraine or the Middle East, by contrast, requires prolonged engagement and attention to detail.”
The Road Ahead
The challenges in Ukraine and the Middle East highlight the limitations of the current US administration’s approach to international diplomacy. The lack of a comprehensive strategy and adequate resources has resulted in missed opportunities for peace, affecting not only US interests but also the lives of those enduring these conflicts. As Trump continues to navigate these complex geopolitical landscapes, the need for a more robust and nuanced approach becomes increasingly apparent.
Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, notes that the current situation represents a self-inflicted opportunity lost for the United States and the long-suffering populations of Ukraine and the Middle East. As the world watches, the effectiveness of Trump’s foreign policy initiatives remains under scrutiny, with significant implications for global stability.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
