Australia is on the brink of a population crisis, with birth rates plummeting to unprecedented levels. Experts warn that the nation may soon be compelled to seek migrants to sustain its economy. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the current birth rate is insufficient to maintain the population, raising alarms among demographers and policymakers alike.
Renowned evolutionary psychologist Dr. Bill von Hippel from Queensland has highlighted the global decline in birth rates, suggesting that humanity could face a shrinking future without urgent intervention. In Australia, the birth rate has dropped dramatically from 3.55 children per woman in 1960 to just 1.5 today, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain the current population of 27 million.
The Global Context of Declining Birth Rates
Dr. von Hippel warns that low birth rates will inevitably lead governments to compete for migrants to support aging populations, workforce demands, and public services. “If you look at the current population of the globe, it’s meant to peak somewhere between 2070 and 2090, probably around eight billion and some change,” he explained on the Diary of a CEO podcast. “And then it starts to go down, and then it may continue to go down forever.”
Many Asian countries and half of Western Europe are experiencing rapid population declines, with Japan even demolishing homes due to a lack of buyers. This trend is not isolated to these regions; Australia is also feeling the effects, with its birth rate of 1.5 babies per woman significantly below the necessary level to sustain its population.
The Looming Talent War
As birth rates fall globally, a fierce competition for skilled migrants is emerging. Countries like Australia are expected to outbid each other to attract these valuable workers. Dr. von Hippel predicts that in 50 years, nations will be vying to convince people from other countries to migrate in order to prevent their own demographic decline.
Futurologist Rocky Scopelliti emphasizes that the future will see nations competing over skilled workers rather than resources like oil. “Australia’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1,” he noted. “This means fewer taxpayers, fewer workers, and a growing burden on a shrinking younger population to support an aging one.”
“By 2060, there will be just 2.7 working-age Australians for every person over 65, down from 7.4 in the 1970s. That spells serious strain on our healthcare, pensions, housing, and productivity.”
Policy Implications and Future Strategies
Mr. Scopelliti warns that Australia cannot assume it will remain a top destination for migrants. “Canada has already outpaced us in attracting young, skilled migrants with streamlined visa processes and family-friendly resettlement policies,” he stated. “Australia must modernize its migration strategy, making it easier for workers, families, and students to stay long-term and integrate.”
Countries like Japan and South Korea serve as cautionary tales of demographic inertia, where fewer births lead to lower economic growth and difficulties in funding essential services. “Australia is not immune,” Mr. Scopelliti cautioned. “We’re at a pivotal crossroads. While slower population growth may benefit the planet environmentally, without strategic foresight, it could lead to economic stagnation and declining innovation.”
Opportunities and Challenges Ahead
Australia has a unique opportunity to leverage its world-class education, political stability, and lifestyle, along with its proximity to Asia. However, improvements in liveability, housing affordability, and pathways to permanent residency are essential. “We need a bold migration brand strategy,” Mr. Scopelliti asserted. “If migrants are the gold of the 21st century, Australia must become the vault everyone wants to be in.”
Elon Musk, the outspoken billionaire and father of 12, has also warned of the risks posed by declining birth and fertility rates. “Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming,” he remarked in 2022.
Addressing the Root Causes
Emeritus Professor of Demography Peter McDonald from the Australian National University in Canberra points to several reasons why young Australian women are delaying or forgoing childbirth. “Establishing themselves in careers, younger people have been putting off life and settling down, by staying in education longer, by traveling, and all of those things lead to things occurring later,” he explained.
Professor McDonald suggests that governments could address this issue by focusing on two key policy levers: affordable housing and childcare. “It takes a long time to deal with affordable housing, but the government could address affordable childcare more swiftly,” he recommended.
The challenge for Australia is clear: adapt its policies and strategies to attract and retain skilled migrants while addressing the root causes of its declining birth rate. Failure to do so could result in economic stagnation and a diminished global standing.
