In the expansive deserts of northern China, the country’s green energy transformation is unmistakably visible. Solar panels stretch across the sun-drenched landscape, powering an economy rapidly embracing renewable energy. As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China is setting ambitious goals to reshape its energy landscape, planning to install 446 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2025, according to Climate Energy Finance, an Australian think tank. This figure surpasses the combined efforts of the rest of the world.
Despite these advancements, China is racing against a 2030 deadline to reach peak emissions. The latest five-year plan, adopted at the annual two sessions conference, highlights energy security as a significant factor in its green energy ambitions. Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, noted that recent geopolitical shifts, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran, have influenced China’s energy strategy. “Countries, including China, logically will be focused on energy independence,” Buckley stated.
China’s ‘Compromise’ to Reduce Carbon
China’s carbon emissions have plateaued or declined since March 2024, yet questions remain about whether they have truly peaked. The 15th five-year plan, mapping economic development from 2026 to 2030, aims to reduce carbon emissions by 17 percent per GDP unit. However, this approach allows for a potential 5-10 percent emissions growth until 2030, with reductions expected by 2035, according to Jorrit Gosens, an energy transition researcher at the Australian National University.
Critics, such as the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, argue that China’s carbon intensity target jeopardizes its Paris Agreement commitment to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, explained that China is increasingly relying on clean technology sectors rather than government mandates to achieve emissions cuts. “The carbon intensity target was a compromise,” Li noted.
China’s Green Technology Leadership
China’s dominance in clean technology is evident in markets like Australia, where Chinese brands lead in solar panel supply and electric vehicle market share. This leadership results from years of substantial investment in green energy industries. However, Dr. Gosens observed that China’s recent announcements do not fully align with the plan’s rhetoric of “accelerating” the green transition. The goal to install 3,600 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity by 2035 suggests a slower pace than recent years.
Li Shuo pointed out that the plan adopts a cautious stance towards promoting wind and solar industries, which are experiencing overinvestment. “Development continues, but no extra policy support is proposed, as these industries have matured,” he said. Meanwhile, China’s government is signaling significant investment in research and development over the next five years. “We haven’t seen anything yet,” Buckley added, emphasizing the potential for innovation in renewables.
“If there are no extra trade barriers and extra trade risks, I think there’s also an opportunity to continue with a low-cost green energy transition supported by Chinese technologies,” said Christoph Nedopil Wang, a green energy and finance expert at the University of Queensland.
Coal’s Continued Role in China’s Energy Strategy
While renewable energy is expected to meet China’s growing energy demand, the five-year plan still reserves a role for coal, without imposing strict limits on its use. Dr. Gosens explained that coal-fired power is increasingly used to ensure a stable energy supply rather than as the primary electricity source. The plan also emphasizes investment in “smart grids” to integrate and stabilize renewable energy.
China’s reliance on coal, which it largely produces domestically, is expected to decrease imports, including from Australia. However, the plan also includes converting some coal to oil and chemicals, a process criticized for its high emissions. “That’s a very emissions-intensive way to produce chemicals,” Dr. Gosens noted.
Energy security and independence remain top priorities for China as it transitions from fossil fuels. “Climate change and delivering a livable planet for future generations is a motive, but not the only one,” Buckley remarked.
As China continues its green energy journey, the world watches closely to see how this economic powerhouse balances environmental goals with its developmental ambitions.
