The Liberal Party must resist the pull of populism and draw a sharp distinction from One Nation, particularly on immigration, if it hopes to return to government, former Menzies MP Keith Wolahan has warned. In a new essay dissecting the future of the centre-right party, Wolahan argues that the Liberals have lost more ground to Labor in multicultural and suburban seats than to teals and must reconnect with younger voters by articulating their values and policy priorities.
Wolahan’s essay, featured in Inflection Points under the title Liberal Foundations, paints a picture of the typical suburban swing voter as an aspirational, tertiary-educated woman in her 30s. He laments that she has not found a natural home with the Liberals. Wolahan stresses the need for the party to rebuild around core values, communicated in accessible, bite-sized formats, and sharpen its focus on migration, education, and home ownership.
Challenges in Multicultural Engagement
Wolahan, a former army commando and once considered a future leader of the Liberals, lost his seat in 2025 following a boundary redistribution and a swing towards the Albanese government. One of the factors attributed to Labor’s success in the seat is the Liberals’ declining popularity with Chinese Australians, who represent a significant share of Menzies. A central argument in Wolahan’s essay, provided to The Age ahead of its release, is that the Liberal party must better reflect and engage Australia’s multicultural communities.
Born in Ireland, Wolahan is among the 32 percent of the nation’s population born overseas compared to 23 percent in 1996. He stated,
“Australia today is not just a nation of immigrants; it is a nation of recent immigrants. Of the top 50 seats by any migrant background, the party now holds only two.”
Policy and Populism
In policy terms, Wolahan suggests that migration volume and standards should be directly linked to the capacity for housing, infrastructure, and social cohesion, with clear and transparent measures reviewed often. His caution comes as senior Liberal figures sharpen their language on migration. Wolahan argues that the party must prosecute the case for sustainable migration, warning against echoing the “policy and tone” of One Nation, which is polling at 23 percent nationally, according to the latest Resolve Political Monitor, and 11 percent at a state-level in Victoria.
“We cherish those who have made their lives here and cannot fold to populism,” Wolahan said. “That requires recognizing that a generous migration policy operates on social license, grounded in public consent.”
The Liberal Party is facing a challenge to present an immigration policy that does not isolate multicultural voters while seeking to win back voters flirting with One Nation. New Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said the nation must only accept people with “Australian values” while deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume appeared to link Australia’s recent migration levels to a fraying of social cohesion, such as antisemitism, on ABC radio last week.
Reconnecting with Voters
In the essay, Wolahan reflects on how the Howard government won four elections by speaking to “Phil and Jenny” – suburban, non-university educated and focused on interest rates. He notes that the decisive voter in 2026 is a woman, renter, and has parents in small business who migrated from China.
“She works hard. She pays her taxes. She wants to buy a home, start a family, and build a life. She believes in aspiration. She should be a Liberal voter, yet she is not,” Wolahan said. “It is a failure to meet the needs of today’s Australia, told in seismic demographic shifts across migration, education, and home ownership.”
Wolahan emphasizes that the Liberal Party cannot govern Australia unless it wins in the cities. While acknowledging the rise of teal independents, he argues just seven of the 44 metropolitan seats held by the Coalition in 2013 are now held by these MPs. By contrast, 28 have been lost to Labor in “multicultural middle and outer suburban seats” which are more diverse and motivated by economic issues.
“[The Liberal Party] is the only party capable of offering economic opportunity, national confidence, and family-focused aspiration to educated, diverse, urban electorates,” he said. “That makes the Liberal Party the only centre-right movement with a credible path to governing from the cities.”
Future Directions
Wolahan has called on the party to also preselect better candidates and draw members from across the community, including migrant families and young professionals.
“The task is not to rediscover what Liberals believe. It is to say it clearly, mean it, and field candidates and leaders who prove it,” he said. “No political party has a right to survive. I believe that recovery depends on two things: clarity about what we believe, and people of competence and character to deliver it.”
The announcement comes as the Liberal Party seeks to redefine its identity and strategy in a rapidly changing political landscape. The next steps will be crucial in determining whether the Liberals can regain their footing and appeal to a broader, more diverse electorate.
