The global energy transition is progressing at an unprecedented pace, despite political upheavals and debates over climate policy. As Australia grapples with its own energy challenges, accusations have surfaced that the push for net-zero emissions is driving up electricity prices. However, experts argue that these claims are misleading and do not reflect the broader global trends.
Amidst political turbulence, such as the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under former President Donald Trump, there is a narrative suggesting a global retreat from climate commitments. This notion is further fueled by claims that international climate conferences like COP30 have failed, and that Australia is shouldering more than its fair share of emission reductions.
Global Emissions Trends and Climate Commitments
Contrary to the narrative of failure, the reality is that global emissions growth has been slowing, with projections indicating a decline in the near future. Although the world is not yet on track to limit temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the outlook has significantly improved since the adoption of the Paris Agreement a decade ago.
By the Numbers: In 2015, projections showed a potential temperature rise of 4 degrees Celsius. Current commitments and trends suggest a more moderate increase of 1.8-2.2 degrees Celsius.
Fossil fuel production has also seen a marked slowdown. Since 2015, coal consumption has grown by less than 1 percent annually, compared to over 4 percent in the previous decade. Notably, countries like China, India, and Indonesia accounted for 73 percent of global coal consumption in 2024, while the rest of the world saw a 23 percent decline.
Renewable Energy Surge in Asia
China’s commitment to renewable energy has been particularly striking. In 2024, over 80 percent of new electricity generation in China came from clean energy sources, primarily wind and solar. This shift has led to a decrease in China’s power-sector emissions and a reduction in coal and gas-fired generation by 1.9 percent in 2025.
India has also made significant strides, achieving a key 2030 target—having 50 percent of its installed electric power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources—five years ahead of schedule. This progress indicates that India’s fossil fuel electricity emissions are nearing their peak.
Impact of U.S. Policy Changes
The U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement and the rollback of environmental regulations under Trump have raised concerns about global temperature increases. However, the anticipated impact on global warming is relatively modest, estimated at an additional 0.1-0.2 degrees Celsius, depending on future policy developments.
“Market-driven investments and sub-national government actions are expected to mitigate the impact of these policy reversals,” experts suggest.
Investors are increasingly focusing on long-term sustainability, recognizing that the imperative to combat climate change will persist beyond political cycles.
Economic Drivers of the Energy Transition
The transition from fossil fuels is not solely driven by environmental concerns. The economic viability of solar and wind energy has improved dramatically, with costs plummeting by 80 percent since 2015. In 2023, solar PV module prices dropped by nearly 50 percent year-on-year, while global lithium-ion battery deployment in 2025 was six times higher than in 2020.
Additionally, international trade policies, such as Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, are incentivizing countries to reduce carbon emissions to maintain market access.
Declining Carbon Intensity and Emission Reductions
While coal-fired electricity remains prevalent, the carbon intensity of electricity generation is decreasing globally. Since 2015, carbon intensity has declined by 14 percent worldwide, with notable reductions in China (23 percent), India (13 percent), the U.S. (over 30 percent), and the EU (over 50 percent).
Significant Reductions: Since 2005, the UK has cut emissions by over 40 percent, the EU by over 30 percent, and the U.S. by over 15 percent. Australia has seen a 4 percent reduction, excluding land use changes.
Despite these achievements, Australia still lags behind comparable economies in emission reductions, highlighting the need for continued efforts.
The Path Forward
The world faces significant challenges in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change, but the momentum of the energy transition is undeniable. Policymakers must communicate honestly with the public about the progress and challenges ahead.
Rebecca Burdon, CEO of Climate Resource, and Rod Sims, Chair of the Superpower Institute, emphasize the importance of transparency and sustained commitment to achieving a sustainable energy future.
