Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has experienced an unprecedented surge in popularity, marking the fastest polling rise in modern Australian politics. Since the federal election in May last year, One Nation’s support has skyrocketed, now polling above 20 percent nationally for the first time in its 29-year history. This surge places the party ahead of the combined vote of the Liberal and National parties, a development that has left political analysts astounded.
Jill Sheppard, a political scientist at the Australian National University, expressed her surprise at the polling data.
“I am shocked [by] every poll I see — and I do this for a living,”
she said. Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras echoed this sentiment, describing the rise as the fastest he has ever witnessed. If these polling numbers translate into votes, it could dramatically reshape the Australian political landscape.
Understanding the Polling Data
To comprehend the magnitude of this shift, a look at the latest polling data compared to past election results is essential. Historically, One Nation’s Lower House vote has remained below 5 percent, only climbing slightly above 6 percent last year. However, recent polling figures, compiled by election analyst William Bowe, show a leap to unprecedented levels, while support for the Coalition has plummeted.
This change is not merely a statistical anomaly; it represents a seismic shift that has captured the attention of politicians nationwide. The collapse in Coalition support is another significant aspect of this story, contributing to Sussan Ley’s loss of leadership. Angus Taylor, in his successful leadership challenge, claimed the Liberals were in their worst position since their founding in 1944.
Who is Supporting One Nation?
One Nation’s newfound popularity is primarily drawing support from former Coalition voters. According to George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAU,
“They are picking up a small portion of Labor voters, but primarily it’s a shift amongst Coalition voters.”
DemosAU’s polls since October last year highlight this trend, showing that up to one in three former Coalition voters now intend to vote for One Nation.
Interestingly, the shift is not confined to traditional demographics. One Nation is gaining traction among voters who previously supported independents and smaller parties. Samaras notes,
“There’s an element amongst that One Nation cohort now that just wants to burn the place down, turf the two-party system out the door, up-end the system.”
This sentiment is particularly strong among older, non-university educated voters in regional and rural Australia.
Demographic Breakdown
Analyzing the demographics, men are slightly more likely to support One Nation than women, although the difference is not substantial. Age, however, reveals a more significant divide, with older voters showing more inclination towards One Nation. This trend is driven by economic stress, as many older voters face personal economic decline and feel the two-party system no longer serves them.
Geographically, One Nation’s support is expanding beyond its traditional stronghold in Queensland. It is becoming a nationwide party, with significant gains in metropolitan areas and outer suburbs. This shift is fueled by economic hardships in traditional industries and a growing dissatisfaction with the status quo.
The Role of Immigration in One Nation’s Appeal
Immigration stands out as a central issue for One Nation supporters. More than half of One Nation voters rank it as a primary concern, far exceeding other voter groups. Samaras explains that immigration is intertwined with issues of identity and economic fragility, resonating with voters who feel abandoned by the major parties.
Jill Sheppard warns of the dangers of allowing One Nation to dominate the immigration debate, as it could lead to more extreme public discourse. Angus Taylor, the new Liberal leader, has promised a revised approach to immigration, acknowledging the concerns of One Nation voters who link immigration to housing affordability and cost-of-living pressures.
Global Trends and Future Implications
One Nation’s rise is part of a broader global trend of populist parties gaining mainstream traction. Like Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, Pauline Hanson appeals to voters seeking authenticity and simple solutions to complex issues. This trend is accompanied by a growing distrust of political institutions, with One Nation voters showing high levels of cynicism towards politicians.
As right-wing populist parties continue to replace traditional center-right parties, the question remains whether One Nation’s polling success will translate into electoral victories. If the current polling reflects future voting behavior, One Nation could secure significant representation, reminiscent of its success in the 1998 Queensland election.
However, the party faces challenges, including the need to professionalize and build stronger party structures. Whether One Nation can maintain its momentum and capitalize on the Coalition’s weaknesses will be crucial in the coming elections.
As Australia approaches the South Australian election and a federal by-election, the political landscape is poised for potential upheaval. The outcomes of these contests will provide further insight into whether One Nation’s polling surge is a temporary phenomenon or a lasting shift in Australian politics.
