Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has experienced a meteoric rise in the polls, marking the fastest ascent in modern Australian political history. Since the federal election in May last year, the party’s popularity has surged, now polling above 20 percent nationally for the first time in its 29-year history, surpassing the combined vote of the Liberal and National parties.
This unprecedented shift has left political analysts and pollsters astounded. “I am shocked [by] every poll I see — and I do this for a living,” says ANU political scientist Jill Sheppard. “The sheer numbers of people who are telling pollsters they will vote for One Nation is tremendous.” Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras echoes this sentiment, describing the rise as “drastic” and the fastest he has ever witnessed.
If One Nation’s current level of support translates into votes at the ballot box, it could fundamentally reshape the Australian political landscape. Let us delve deeper into the polling data and explore the implications of this political phenomenon.
Understanding the Polling Data
Analyzing the latest polling data reveals a significant departure from past election results. Historically, One Nation’s Lower House vote has hovered below 5 percent, peaking at just over 6 percent last year. However, recent polling averages compiled by election analyst William Bowe indicate a dramatic leap in support, while the Coalition’s numbers have plummeted.
This shift has not only captured the attention of politicians nationwide but also contributed to the downfall of Sussan Ley’s leadership. In his successful leadership challenge, Angus Taylor described the Liberals as being in their worst position since their foundation in 1944. According to Kos Samaras, this polling trend reflects a long-anticipated reckoning for the Coalition.
“I’ve been warning [the Coalition], saying this immigration stuff is gonna kill you, but no, no, they didn’t listen. Here we are.” — Kos Samaras
Who is Driving One Nation’s Rise?
One Nation’s surge in support is primarily fueled by former Coalition voters, with only a small portion of Labor voters making the switch. DemosAU’s head of research, George Hasanakos, highlights this trend, noting that the party is capturing a significant share of votes from those disillusioned with traditional parties.
Polls conducted by DemosAU since October last year show that between one in five and one in three former Coalition voters now intend to vote for One Nation. This shift is not static, as voter sentiment continues to evolve.
Moreover, One Nation is attracting voters who previously supported independents and smaller parties. “There’s an element amongst that One Nation cohort now that just wants to burn the place down, turf the two-party system out the door, up-end the system,” says Samaras.
Demographic Insights
One Nation’s support is strongest among older, non-university educated voters in regional and rural Australia. This demographic, facing economic hardships and feeling neglected by traditional parties, is driving the party’s growth.
Men are slightly more likely to support One Nation than women, and older voters, particularly those over 50, are more inclined to back the party. Many of these individuals are Gen X, struggling with financial pressures and a perceived decline in personal economic circumstances.
Geographically, One Nation’s appeal is expanding beyond its traditional stronghold in Queensland, gaining traction in metropolitan areas and outer suburbs. The party’s support is also notable among low-income earners and, surprisingly, high-income earners, with Australia’s richest woman, Gina Rinehart, emerging as a prominent supporter.
The Role of Immigration
Immigration is a core issue for One Nation voters, with more than half ranking it as a top concern. This contrasts with other voter groups, where immigration is less of a priority. Samaras explains that immigration is intertwined with issues of identity and economic insecurity for One Nation supporters.
“Immigration, identity, loss of agency, loss of agency because of those urban elites, loss of agency because of those migrants.” — Kos Samaras
Jill Sheppard warns that the major parties risk ceding the immigration debate to One Nation, potentially worsening public discourse. In response, new Liberal leader Angus Taylor has promised a new approach to immigration, acknowledging voter concerns about housing affordability and cost-of-living pressures.
Global Trends and Future Implications
One Nation’s rise is part of a broader global trend of populist parties gaining mainstream traction. Like US President Donald Trump and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, Pauline Hanson appeals to voters seeking authenticity and simple answers to complex issues.
Distrust of traditional political institutions is a common thread among One Nation supporters, with nearly three-quarters believing politicians “usually look after themselves.” This distrust mirrors a global shift towards right-wing populism, replacing traditional center-right parties.
“We can’t use history to guide us in this because, of course, we are witnessing something quite different.” — Kos Samaras
Looking Ahead
While One Nation’s current polling suggests potential electoral success, translating this into votes and seats remains uncertain. The party’s support is concentrated in specific geographic areas, increasing its chances of winning seats. However, challenges remain, including the need to professionalize and build a robust party structure.
As Australia approaches the next election, the political landscape will continue to evolve. The upcoming South Australian election and a federal by-election in Sussan Ley’s vacated seat will serve as critical tests for both One Nation and the Coalition under Angus Taylor’s leadership.
Ultimately, whether One Nation can maintain its momentum and convert polling strength into lasting political influence will depend on its ability to address voter concerns and navigate the complexities of Australian politics.
