3 February, 2026
rising-gestational-diabetes-rates-in-melbourne-s-southeast-a-growing-concern

Gestational diabetes rates have surged in Melbourne’s southeast, raising alarms about increased health risks for Victorian mothers and their babies. This spike is also adding pressure on the state’s healthcare system. A recent study by Monash University researchers analyzed data from over 1.7 million women who gave birth between 2016 and 2021, revealing troubling trends in certain suburbs.

The study identified new hotspots for gestational diabetes in suburbs such as Glen Waverley, Wantirna South, Mulgrave, Dandenong, and Cranbourne. These areas have seen more than one in five pregnant women affected by the condition. In contrast, Melbourne’s inner suburbs and affluent bayside areas reported lower-than-average rates.

Understanding the Data

Gestational diabetes, a condition characterized by elevated blood sugar levels during pregnancy, affects nearly one in five pregnant women in Australia. The study, published in BMJ Open, is the first to map the uneven distribution of this condition across the country. Professor Jacqueline Boyle from Monash University emphasized the importance of tracking these rates due to the associated risks, such as pre-eclampsia, high birth weight, and the likelihood of caesarean delivery.

“Women with gestational diabetes also have an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and gestational diabetes in subsequent pregnancies,” said Professor Boyle.

PhD student Wubet Worku Takele, who authored the study, pointed to socio-environmental factors as contributors to these hotspots. Areas with socioeconomic disadvantages and high concentrations of non-European migrant women, who are genetically and culturally predisposed to diabetes, showed higher rates of gestational diabetes.

Socio-Environmental Factors at Play

Takele highlighted that limited access to healthy food outlets and elevated air pollution might increase the risk of gestational diabetes. Additionally, a lack of culturally responsive health resources and services for diverse populations exacerbates the issue.

“Other reasons may relate to a lack of culturally responsive health promotion resources and health services for diverse populations,” Takele added.

The study utilized Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) data, which often correlates with suburb-level analysis. Hot and cold spots were categorized based on statistical significance, with ‘significant’ zones having a confidence level of 95% or more.

Who Is Most at Risk?

Certain groups are at a higher risk for developing gestational diabetes. These include women who have previously been diagnosed with the condition, pregnant women aged 40 or older, those with a higher BMI, and individuals with a family history of type 2 diabetes. Additionally, First Nations women and women from African, Melanesian, Polynesian, South Asian, Chinese, Southeast Asian, Middle Eastern, Hispanic, and South American backgrounds are more susceptible.

Implications for Healthcare Services

The emergence of gestational diabetes hotspots in suburbs like Dandenong and Springvale predates recent changes in diagnostic criteria in Victoria. However, these areas remain a concern for healthcare providers. Alison Nankervis, a senior physician at the Royal Women’s Hospital, noted that even well-resourced hospitals are struggling to manage the influx of cases.

“The diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes were tightened after a debate over whether too many women were being diagnosed and if health services could cope,” Nankervis explained.

A study published in May 2023 found that a third of women diagnosed with early gestational diabetes did not have the condition upon retesting later in pregnancy. Despite initial reductions in diagnoses following the criteria change, the number of cases has returned to previous levels.

Looking Ahead

As Melbourne continues to grapple with rising gestational diabetes rates, the focus must shift towards addressing socio-environmental factors and improving healthcare access for at-risk populations. This includes developing culturally appropriate health resources and services to better serve diverse communities.

The findings from Monash University’s study underscore the need for ongoing research and targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of gestational diabetes on mothers and their children. As the healthcare system adapts to these challenges, the hope is to reduce the incidence of this condition and its associated risks.