In a dramatic turn of events, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been captured and is now in custody in a New York prison. This unprecedented move by the United States has sparked a whirlwind of political, legal, and diplomatic consequences, as questions loom over the Trump administration’s next steps.
Maduro spent his first night in a Brooklyn prison cell and is scheduled to appear in a Manhattan federal court for arraignment. A newly unsealed indictment charges him with narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, and possession of machine guns. Meanwhile, Delcy Rodríguez has been sworn in as interim leader in Caracas, amid a backdrop of international tension and uncertainty.
US Plans for Venezuela Under Scrutiny
The Trump administration faces increased scrutiny over its plans for Venezuela following the bold operation to capture Maduro. President Donald Trump has stated that the US intends to “run” Venezuela for an unspecified period, reclaiming American oil interests. However, details remain sparse, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has since appeared to temper these assertions.
US Attorney-General Pam Bondi emphasized that “every lawful option” was pursued to resolve the situation peacefully, but these efforts were reportedly rejected. The United Nations Security Council is set to meet to discuss the US strike on Caracas, which UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called a “dangerous precedent.”
International Reactions and Implications
Russia and China, both staunch supporters of Venezuela, have criticized the US actions. European Union member states, with the exception of Hungary, have called for a peaceful resolution to the crisis. Australian Minister for Industry and Innovation Tim Ayres stated that the Australian government would “continue to watch this closely and carefully.”
“All the nations of the region must remain alert, because the threat hangs over all of us,” Cuban authorities declared in response to the US operation.
Cuban Concerns and US-Cuba Relations
Amidst these developments, concern is rising in Cuba, a key ally of Venezuela. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a stern warning to the Cuban government, alleging Cuban officials were involved in guarding Maduro. Rubio, himself of Cuban descent, claimed that Cuban bodyguards were responsible for Maduro’s security and internal intelligence operations.
President Trump has likened the Cuban government to Venezuela’s, describing Cuba as a “very badly failing nation.” In response, Cuban authorities have organized rallies in support of Venezuela, condemning the US military actions.
Potential Outcomes for Venezuela
Robert Muggah, co-founder of the Igarapé Institute, has outlined five potential scenarios for Venezuela post-Maduro:
- Trump declares victory and withdraws: The US may reduce its involvement after claiming success.
- Popular uprising: A coalition of opposition parties might push for a transitional council.
- US-backed opposition: A recognized opposition leader could be installed with international support.
- US custodianship: The US could manage a transition, stabilizing the country and its economy.
- Hybrid conflict: Venezuela could face ongoing instability with sporadic US interventions.
These scenarios highlight the complex geopolitical landscape and the potential for prolonged instability in Venezuela.
Historical Parallels and Expert Opinions
Australian human rights barrister Geoffrey Robertson KC has compared the US action in Venezuela to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, labeling both as acts of aggression. He argues that the US has no legitimate defense for its actions, which he claims are akin to starting a war.
“The UN Charter of 1945 proclaims its purpose of saving succeeding generations from the scourge of war,” Robertson wrote, emphasizing the illegality of the US invasion.
Meanwhile, Venezuelans in Australia have celebrated Maduro’s capture, seeing it as a step towards democracy. Jackeline Giovannucci, a Venezuelan expatriate in Sydney, expressed hope for a transition away from dictatorship and poverty.
As the world watches, the unfolding situation in Venezuela presents a complex tapestry of political maneuvering, international diplomacy, and the quest for stability in a nation long marred by turmoil.
