In recent weeks, the Labour Party has been abuzz with speculation regarding the future of its leader, Keir Starmer. The chatter has been fueled by conversations involving Wes Streeting, the Shadow Health Secretary, who has been engaging with party donors about financial markets—an unusual topic for his portfolio. According to a party insider, “The real Labour big shots all think it’s got to be Wes. They’re charmed by him.”
This speculation comes as Starmer’s unfavorability rating has plummeted to a record low, with a YouGov poll last month placing him at minus 54. Historically, no prime minister has rebounded from such unpopularity to secure an election victory. Labour MPs are acutely aware that contesting a general election under Starmer’s leadership could be politically disastrous.
Leadership Challenges and Historical Parallels
Despite the fervor, the narrative of an imminent leadership change may be exaggerated. Currently, there is no clear figurehead for the 80 MPs required to initiate a leadership coup, nor is there a scandal to justify such a move. Starmer’s leadership, though embattled, may endure for another two years or more. The Labour Party’s high threshold for deposing a leader adds another layer of complexity.
Veterans of the New Labour era recall similar failed coups, such as those during Gordon Brown’s tenure when figures like James Purnell and David Miliband circled but failed to dethrone him. As Theo Bertram, a former adviser to Brown and Blair, notes, “Leadership changes are not a harmless medical procedure. It is life-threatening for a government.”
Internal Dynamics and Party Strategy
Streeting’s potential rise has been tempered by Angela Rayner, whose allies have dismissed any notion of a pact between them, creating a temporary equilibrium. “Everybody needs to calm down,” a minister suggests, as the party grapples with its internal dynamics.
Starmer has been consulting with Jonathan Powell, a former chief of staff to Tony Blair, who offers perspective on leadership challenges. Powell reminds Starmer that Blair’s tenure was not without its trials, countering the perception of unending public adoration.
The Road Ahead: Policy and Communication
Starmer acknowledges the difficulties his government faces, from policy missteps to communication failures. His administration has struggled to gain recognition for its achievements, overshadowed by daily criticisms. However, he remains resilient, often referencing his past resilience in opposition. An ally notes, “He munches through all the criticism. It doesn’t really lay a glove on him.”
Starmer’s focus has shifted to the cost of living crisis, which he now views as the government’s “north star.” This shift aims to streamline policy efforts and address public concerns. However, skeptics recall previous priorities, such as economic growth and state reform, which have stalled.
Electoral Implications and Strategic Moves
Looking ahead to the May elections, Starmer hopes to demonstrate tangible progress on cost of living issues. Initiatives include free childcare, minimum wage hikes, and renter’s rights legislation. Yet, as Theo Bertram warns, “The real danger now is that people have stopped listening.”
Starmer’s new communication strategy includes engaging with platforms like TikTok and Substack, aiming to bypass the Westminster media. He has also been visiting towns like Reading and Norwich to highlight local policies. Despite his disdain for parliamentary politics, he must eventually address the narrative surrounding his leadership.
International Concerns and Future Prospects
Starmer’s attention is divided by international issues, notably the situation in Ukraine. A source close to him describes his concern for President Zelensky’s precarious position. Starmer remains committed to statecraft, viewing international deals as essential to his role.
Within Labour, some advocate for a bold move, such as rejoining an EU customs union, to rally support and boost growth. However, Starmer favors a more cautious approach, focusing on incremental European engagement.
As the Labour Party navigates these turbulent waters, the question remains whether Starmer can indeed “turn the corner” and lead his party to electoral success. The coming months will be crucial in determining his political fate and the direction of the Labour Party.
