Support for Australia’s Coalition has plunged to a historic low, while One Nation’s popularity has soared to unprecedented heights. This shift in political allegiance, highlighted by a recent poll, is largely driven by mounting concerns over the nation’s housing crisis and the rising cost of living, which have intensified frustrations regarding immigration policies.
The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this publication, reveals that Labor now holds a commanding 55-45 percent lead in the two-party-preferred vote, an improvement from the federal government’s 53-47 lead in November. Labor’s primary vote increased by two percentage points to 35 percent, while the Coalition’s primary vote dropped three points to 26 percent. Meanwhile, One Nation’s support has risen by two points to 14 percent, marking the highest and lowest levels for One Nation and the Coalition, respectively, in the history of the Resolve Political Monitor.
Immigration and Housing: Core Issues
The surge in One Nation’s support coincides with growing public frustration over Australia’s immigration policies. According to the poll, two-thirds of voters advocate for pausing all immigration until the housing supply meets demand, while only 13 percent oppose such a measure. This sentiment underscores a broader disquiet about immigration, housing shortages, and the cost of living.
Furthermore, 61 percent of respondents support restricting permanent migration to individuals with skills needed by the country, with 17 percent opposing and 23 percent undecided. As the opposition prepares to unveil its migration policy, which is expected to recommend reducing Australia’s immigration intake, 53 percent of Australians believe current migration levels are too high.
Political Dynamics and Leadership Challenges
The poll also suggests that former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce’s potential defection to One Nation could influence voter preferences. More respondents (29 percent) indicated they would be more likely to support One Nation if Joyce joins the party than those who would be less likely (19 percent). Among Coalition and One Nation voters, the prospect of a Joyce-led One Nation is even more appealing, with 39 percent and 49 percent, respectively, expressing increased likelihood of support.
Conducted from December 2 to 7, the poll surveyed 1800 respondents and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent. The decline in support for the Sussan Ley-led opposition follows a tumultuous period marked by internal conflicts over the Coalition’s net zero emissions policy, which could further destabilize Ley’s leadership. Despite these challenges, Ley’s personal performance rating has improved, rising from 34 percent to 39 percent good or very good in the last month.
Labor’s Policy Strength and Economic Management
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s leadership has seen a boost, with his preferred prime minister rating rising to 41 percent, up from 39 percent. His net performance rating has also improved, reaching positive territory at plus six percentage points. Labor’s advantage extends across 15 of 18 policy areas, including health, education, climate, and economic management.
Labor holds a net lead of plus three percentage points over the Coalition as the better economic manager, a significant turnaround from January 2025 when Labor trailed by minus 19 percentage points.
Nevertheless, the Coalition still leads Labor by six percentage points in managing the nation’s finances, indicating areas where the opposition can potentially regain ground.
Public Priorities and Future Outlook
When asked about their highest policy priorities, 42 percent of respondents identified “keeping the cost of living low” as their top concern, far surpassing other issues such as health and aged care (10 percent), crime (9 percent), and immigration (5 percent). This focus on economic issues reflects the public’s ongoing anxieties amid rising living costs.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the coming months will be crucial for both major parties. The Coalition must address internal divisions and articulate a clear policy vision, while Labor will aim to consolidate its gains by addressing the pressing economic and social issues facing Australians.
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