Donald Trump’s net approval rating has seen a slight recovery after hitting a term low on November 23. This improvement coincides with the Republican Party retaining a federal seat in a special election. Meanwhile, in Australia, the Labor Party continues to dominate federal polls, although it garnered only 8.3% of the vote in the Hinchinbrook Queensland state by-election.
According to Nate Silver’s aggregate of U.S. national polls, Trump’s net approval stands at -13.5, with 54.8% disapproving and 41.3% approving. This marks a rebound from a term low of -15.0 on November 23, following a drop from -7.6 on October 20. Trump’s ratings on key issues such as immigration, trade, the economy, and inflation have shown mixed trends, with a recent slight recovery noted in the economy and inflation sectors.
Trump’s Approval Trends and Historical Context
Trump’s net approval on immigration is at -7.0, on trade at -16.7, on the economy at -19.8, and on inflation at -32.5. These figures reflect a decline since late October, except for a minor recent upturn. Historically, Trump’s current net approval is only better than his own first term at this stage of past presidencies, with Joe Biden’s net approval being the next weakest.
The upcoming midterm elections in November 2026 will see all 435 House of Representatives seats and one-third of the 100 Senate seats up for grabs. In Fiftyplusone’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 4.2 points, a slight improvement for Democrats since October.
“The benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index had slumped 5.1% from its October 29 peak on November 20 but has rebounded strongly to just 0.9% below its peak. Stock market gains may explain Trump’s modest ratings recovery.”
Republican Resilience in Tennessee
In Tennessee, Republicans successfully retained a federal House seat despite a significant swing towards the Democrats. With nearly all votes counted, the Republican candidate led the Democrat by 53.9% to 45.1%, an 8.8-point margin. This contrasts with the 22.3-point victory Trump secured over Kamala Harris in this district in 2024.
Australian Political Landscape: Labor’s Stronghold
In Australia, a national Redbridge and Accent Research poll conducted for The Financial Review from November 7 to 26, with a sample size of 4,775, shows Labor leading at 54% to the Coalition’s 46%. This represents a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous poll conducted from November 7 to 13.
Primary votes are distributed as follows: 35% for Labor (down three points), 26% for the Coalition (up two points), 18% for One Nation (steady), 10% for the Greens (up one point), and 11% for all others (steady). Labor holds strong leads in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia but trails in Queensland.
“In the youngest generation, the Greens had 37% of women and 18% of men, with Labor getting 44% among men and 31% with women, while the Coalition had 20% among men and 16% among women.”
Essential Poll Insights and Climate Change Perceptions
The Essential poll conducted from November 19 to 23, with a sample of 1,020, shows Labor maintaining a 50-44 lead, unchanged from October. Primary votes remain steady for Labor at 36%, with minor fluctuations in other parties’ support. Notably, 53% of respondents believe climate change is caused by human activity, a slight decrease since March.
Opinions on climate action reveal that 36% feel Australia is not doing enough, while 30% believe the current efforts are adequate. The poll also highlights public sentiment on gambling advertising, with 40% advocating for a complete ban.
By-Election and Polling Dynamics in Australia
The Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook saw a significant shift as the Liberal National Party (LNP) gained the seat from Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) with a 53.8% to 46.2% victory, marking a 16.9% swing. This regional seat has been a stronghold for non-Labor parties since 1957.
In Tasmania, a recent EMRS poll indicates a decline in support for the Liberals, dropping to 34%, while Labor and the Greens have gained ground. Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s favourability has also decreased significantly.
These developments highlight the dynamic nature of political landscapes both in the United States and Australia, with shifting public opinions and electoral outcomes shaping the future political climate.
